June 4th, 2014
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a shift in the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean caused by warmer-than-usual ocean water. It is responsible for severe weather, droughts and other effects worldwide.
June 2014 Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded (You Need to Guess If It Is Better or Worse than Last Month)
Econintersect: The consolidated economic report from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts (Beige Book) simply said "economic activity expanded". The previous report said "economic activity increased in most regions of the country since the previous report". The key words again this month did not indicate the rate of expansion was better or worse than the previous report - but it was mixed across the country.
Please see the end of this post for words the Federal Reserve uses when the economy is entering a recession.
from the Philadelphia Fed
The 28 participants in the June Livingston Survey have raised their estimates of output growth for the second half of 2014. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will rise at an annual rate of 1.5 percent during the first half of 2014 and 3.0 percent during the second half of 2014, followed by growth of 2.9 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2015. A downward revision for real GDP growth in the first half of 2014, which is 1.0 percentage point lower than the projection in the survey of six months ago, is accompanied by an upward revision to growth in the second half of 2014.