Econintersect:  Bank of America says that a key bond market indicator indicates about 60% probability of a recession starting within twelve months.  Econintersect has been looking for a precise definition of what this indicator is.  The closest we have c… more »

Econontersect:  Economist Mark Perry (Carpe Diem) pointed out last week that the New York Fed inflation risk gauge is stuck on zero.  This is a metric which uses the slope of the yield curve (from the 3-month rate out to the 10-year rate) to determine the probability of recession within the next twelve months. more »