21 November 2014: ECRI's WLI Improves Marginally But Remains in Contraction

November 26th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index improved marginally but has been in negative territory for 6 weeks. This index is forecasting a slight business cycle contraction in 1Q2015. Obviously the markets do not share ECRI's view the business cycle is taking a downturn.

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Growth Declines

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues in negative territory - statistically forecasting a slight business cycle contraction in the next six months.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading growth index "improved" from -2.4% (originally published as -2.4%) to -2.3%  - but, the level of the index degraded from 133.1 (originally released last week as 133.2 to 131.7.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The October update for October (reported in November) shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last five months:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 105.9 from a revised September 104.8 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"With the USFIG approaching its summer highs, notwithstanding the recent plunge in inflation expectations, underlying inflation pressures continue to simmer," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The October's economy's rate of growth (released in November)  marginally declined but shows moderate growth.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI









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