15 November 2014 Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Again Marginally Worsens, But Still Remains Historically Low
Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 265,000 to 295,000 (consensus 284,000) vs the 291,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 285,750 (reported last week as 285,000) to 287,500.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 15.3% lower (marginally worse than the 17.5% reported last week) than they were in this same week in 2013 (see chart below).
2014 claim levels are now near 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion - see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 291,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 290,000 to 293,000. The 4-week moving average was 287,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 285,000 to 285,750. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.8 percent for the week ending November 8, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 8 was 2,330,000, a decrease of 73,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 16, 2000 when it was 2,322,000. The previous week's level was revised up 11,000 from 2,392,000 to 2,403,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,369,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 13, 2001 when it was 2,360,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,750 from 2,372,500 to 2,375,250.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line)