07 November 2014: ECRI's WLI Continues to Forecast Poor Economy Ahead

November 14th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index declined further into negative territory - declining each week for the last 8 weeks. The growth index is at the lowest level seen since July 2012. Obviously the forward looking markets do not believe what this index is saying as it is forecasting a slight contraction in 1Q2015.

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Growth Declines

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues in negative territory - statistically forecasting a slight business cycle contraction in the next six months.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading growth index declined from -2.1% (originally published as -1.8%) to -2.8%  - but, the level of the index improved from 132.5 (originally released last week as 132.8) to 132.1.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The October update for September shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last four months:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in October, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 105.9 from a revised September 104.8 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"With the USFIG approaching its summer highs, notwithstanding the recent plunge in inflation expectations, underlying inflation pressures continue to simmer," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The September's economy's rate of growth (released in October) very marginally declined but shows moderate growth.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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