24 October 2014: ECRI's WLI Goes Deeper into the Dark Side. Statistically No Economic Growth Is Being Forecast.

October 31st, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index declined , and has trespassed marginally into negative territory declining each week for the last 6 weeks - and continues forecasting statistically no growth over the next six months. The growth index is at the lowest level seen since July 2012.

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Growth Declines

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity has marginally entered negative territory - statistically forecasting no growth over the next six months.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index declined from -0.1% (originally published as -0.1%) to -1.2%  - and, the level of the index declined from 131.8 (originally released last week as 131.9) to 131.7.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The October update for September shows the rate of economic growth remaining in a narrow range for the last four months:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. FIG Ticks Down

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 105.0 from a downwardly revised August 105.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The September's economy's rate of growth (released in October) very marginally declined but shows moderate growth.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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