10 October 2014: ECRI's WLI Declines Further. Projecting Little Growth Over the Next 6 Months

October 17th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index marginally declined , remaining in positive territory declining each week for the last 4 weekls - and forecasting little growth over the next six months. The growth index is at the lowest level seen in almost one year.

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Growth Unchanged

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to show expansion.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index declined from 1.5% (originally published as 1.6%) to 1.0%  - and, the level of the index declined from 134.1 (originally released last week as 134.2) to 134.4.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The September update for August shows the rate of economic growth continuing to decline month-to-month:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. FIG Ticks Down

U.S. inflationary pressures were lower in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 105.0 from a downwardly revised August 105.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August's economy's rate of growth (released in September) improved.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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