Fiscal Policy: Ex Ante and Ex Post

August 21st, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

from the Philadelphia Fed

The surge in fiscal deficits since 2008 has put a renewed focus on our understanding of fiscal policy. The interaction of fiscal and monetary policy during this period has also been the subject of much discussion and analysis. By examining the U.S. Federal Reserve Board staff ’s Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy, we created a real-time database of the Greenbook forecasts of fiscal policy, examined the forecast performance in terms of bias and efficiency, and explored the implications for the interaction of fiscal policy and monetary policy.

Follow up:

We also attempt to provide advice for fiscal policy by showing how policymakers learn over time about the trajectory of the U.S. federal government’s fiscal balance as well as the changing roles of structural and cyclical factors.

[click on the image below to read the entire study]


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