July 24th, 2014
Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released to date for July, all show manufacturing expansion.
The market was expecting a range between 4 to 10 (consensus 6) versus the actual at 9.
GROWTH IN TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY EDGED HIGHER
. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the July Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity edged higher, and producers’ optimism for future activity increased.
“Factories in our region reported slightly faster growth in July,” said Wilkerson. “In addition, future hiring and capital spending plans were the highest in six months.”
TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY
Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity edged higher in July, and producers’ optimism for future activity increased. Several firms continued to note difficulties with retaining certain types of workers, particularly machinists and welders. Price indexes were mixed, with most recording little change from the previous month.
The month-over-month composite index was 9 in July, up from 6 in June but slightly lower than 10 in May. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The growth in manufacturing activity occurred mostly at durable goods-producing plants, particularly machinery products, while nondurable goods-producers reported fairly flat activity. Most other month-over-month indexes also increased. The production index climbed from 2 to 11, and the shipments, new orders, and employment indexes also rose considerably. In contrast, the order backlog index fell into negative territory for the first time in four months. Both inventory indexes were basically unchanged.
Year-over-year factory indexes were mixed. The composite year-over-year index moderated somewhat from 15 to 13, and the new orders and order backlog indexes also edged lower. The capital expenditures index fell from 19 to 10, its lowest level in nine months, and the new orders for exports index slipped from -2 to -3. In contrast, the production, shipments, and employment indexes moved slightly higher. The finished goods inventory index decreased from 7 to 0, and the raw materials inventory index also eased.
Future factory indexes increased slightly from last month. The future composite index edged up from 12 to 15, and the future production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also rose. The future employment index jumped from 14 to 23, its highest level in six months, and the future employee workweek index reached nearly a five-year high. The future capital expenditures index grew for the second straight month, while the future new orders for exports index remained unchanged. Both future inventories indexes fell into negative territory. Price indexes were mixed after easing last month. The month-over-month raw materials price index edged down from 25 to 19, while the finished goods price index moved slightly higher. The year-over-year finished goods price index rose from 30 to 37, but the raw materials price index was basically unchanged. The future raw materials price index eased from 49 to 46, and the future finished goods price index also edged lower, indicating fewer firms plan to pass recent cost increases through to customers.
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Survey (pea-green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.