Rail Week Ending 05 July 2014: Very Strong Growth

July 10th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

Econintersect: Week 27 of 2014 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) grew according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Rail growth this week was particularily strong reversing the last several weeks of softer growth.

Follow up:

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity - and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages:

Percent current rolling average  is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago
4 week rolling average 5.9% decelerating accelerating
13 week rolling average 6.7% decelerating accelerating
52 week rolling average 3.9% accelerating accelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased U.S. rail traffic for the week ending July 5, 2014 with 270,731 total carloads, up 9.4 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 227,097 units, up 10.5 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 497,828 carloads and intermodal units, up 9.9 percent compared with the same week last year.

All 10 of the carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2013, including motor vehicles and parts with 14,608 carloads, up 53.7 percent; grain with 18,121 carloads, up 21.7 percent; and metallic ores and metals with 26,749 carloads, up 14.5 percent.

For the first 27 weeks of 2014, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 7,719,025 carloads, up 3.4 percent compared with the same point last year, and 6,869,537 intermodal units, up 6.1 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 27 weeks of 2014 was 14,588,562 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.6 percent from last year.

USA coal production is up 0.8% same week year-over-year - and coal accounts for well over 1/3rd of carloads.

Here is a look at the weekly data comparing it to the same week one year ago, backing out economically less intuitive coal and grain, and comparing growth year-to-date.

This Week
Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year 9.4% 10.5% 9.9%
Ignoring coal and grain 13.6%
Year Cumulative to Date 3.4% 6.1% 4.6%


[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart


/images/z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended July 5, 2014:

  • U.S. coal production totaled approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 6.5% lower than last week's estimate and 0.8 higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2013
  • Coal production east of the Mississippi River totaled 7.1 mmst
  • Coal production west of the Mississippi River totaled 11.0 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 500.6 mmst, 0.4% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2013

  • Make a Comment

    Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

     navigate econintersect .com


    Analysis Blog
    News Blog
    Investing Blog
    Opinion Blog
    Precious Metals Blog
    Markets Blog
    Video of the Day


    Asia / Pacific
    Middle East / Africa
    USA Government

    RSS Feeds / Social Media

    Combined Econintersect Feed

    Free Newsletter

    Marketplace - Books & More

    Economic Forecast

    Content Contribution



      Top Economics Site

    Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

    This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2018 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved