Taking a Look at Our Oceans

June 24th, 2014
in econ_news

Weather and Climate Report, 23 June 2014

Written by

What is going on with the North Atlantic and North Pacific?

What do we know? What is conjecture? Why is it important? And why do policy makers ignore this aspect of climate?

Follow up:

I want to focus on both the condition of the Pacific and the Atlantic but with most emphasis on the Pacific as that seems to be acting substantially differently than in recent years.

Here is a graphic that describes the way PDO+ also known as PDO Positive or PDO Warm Phase shows up in the Northern Pacific.

 

PDO Positive

 

Adn here is the corresponding graphic for PDO- also called PDO Negative or PDO Cold Phase.

PDO Negative

 

Here is another look that covers the entire pacific.

PDO+ or Positive or Warm                                                            PDO - or Negative or cold.

PDO

It is useful to understand how the PDO Index is measured:

“Updated standardized values for the PDO index, derived as the leading PC [Principle Component] of monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean, poleward of 20N. The monthly mean global average SST anomalies are removed to separate this pattern of variability from any ‘global warming’ signal that may be present in the data.”

It is interesting that in meauring the PDO, they only look at the North Pacific. Apparently that is the most useful way of looking at it but clearly this is a large ocean.  There may be bias shown here since most of the World's population lives in the Northern Hemisphere so that gets the most attention. Perhaps there is a a more scientific reason.

Hre is one version of the PDO Index.

YEAR   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC
1900  0.04  1.32  0.49  0.35  0.77  0.65  0.95  0.14 -0.24  0.23 -0.44  1.19
1901  0.79 -0.12  0.35  0.61 -0.42 -0.05 -0.60 -1.20 -0.33  0.16 -0.60 -0.14
1902  0.82  1.58  0.48  1.37  1.09  0.52  1.58  1.57  0.44  0.70  0.16 -1.10
1903  0.86 -0.24 -0.22 -0.50  0.43  0.23  0.40  1.01 -0.24  0.18  0.08 -0.03
1904  0.63 -0.91 -0.71 -0.07  0.22 -1.53 -1.58 -0.64  0.06  0.43  1.45  0.06
1905  0.73  0.91  1.31  1.59  0.07  0.69  0.85  1.26 -0.03 -0.15  1.11 -0.50
1906  0.92  1.18  0.83  0.74  0.44  1.24  0.09 -0.53 -0.31  0.08  1.69 -0.54
1907 -0.30 -0.32 -0.19 -0.16  0.16  0.57  0.63 -0.96 -0.23  0.84  0.66  0.72
1908  1.36  1.02  0.67  0.23  0.23  0.41  0.60 -1.04 -0.16 -0.41  0.47  1.16
1909  0.23  1.01  0.54  0.24  0.39 -0.64 -0.39 -0.68 -0.89 -0.02 -0.40 -0.01
1910 -0.25 -0.70  0.18 -0.37  0.06 -0.28  0.03 -0.06  0.40 -0.66  0.02  0.84
1911 -1.11  0.00 -0.78 -0.73  0.17 -0.02  0.48  0.43  0.29  0.20 -0.86  0.01
1912 -1.72 -0.23 -0.04 -0.38  0.02  0.77  1.07 -0.84  0.94  0.56  0.74  0.98
1913 -0.03  0.34  0.06 -0.92  0.66  1.43  1.06  1.29  0.73  0.62  0.75  0.90
1914  0.34 -0.29  0.08  1.20  0.11  0.11 -0.21  0.11 -0.34 -0.11  0.03  0.89
1915 -0.41  0.14 -1.22  1.40  0.32  0.99  1.07  0.27 -0.05 -0.43 -0.12  0.17
1916 -0.64 -0.19 -0.11  0.35  0.42 -0.82 -0.78 -0.73 -0.77 -0.22 -0.68 -1.94
1917 -0.79 -0.84 -0.71 -0.34  0.82 -0.03  0.10 -0.22 -0.40 -1.75 -0.34 -0.60
1918 -1.13 -0.66 -1.15 -0.32 -0.33  0.07  0.98 -0.31 -0.59  0.61  0.34  0.86
1919 -1.07  1.31 -0.50  0.08  0.17 -0.71 -0.47  0.38  0.06 -0.42 -0.80  0.76
1920 -1.18  0.06 -0.78 -1.29 -0.97 -1.30 -0.90 -2.21 -1.28 -1.06 -0.26  0.29
1921 -0.66 -0.61 -0.01 -0.93 -0.42  0.40 -0.58 -0.69 -0.78 -0.23  1.92  1.42
1922  1.05 -0.85  0.08  0.43 -0.19 -1.04 -0.82 -0.93 -0.81  0.84 -0.60  0.48
1923  0.75 -0.04  0.49  0.99 -0.20  0.68  1.16  0.84 -0.24  1.10  0.62 -0.36
1924  1.29  0.73  1.13 -0.02  0.36  0.75 -0.55 -0.67 -0.48 -1.25  0.24  0.11
1925 -0.05 -0.14  0.20  0.86  0.79 -1.08 -0.06 -0.86  0.52  0.04  0.88  1.19
1926  0.30  0.98 -0.50  2.10  1.43  2.03  1.05  1.64  1.18  1.65  1.00  1.06
1927  1.07  1.73  0.15 -0.18  0.30  0.69 -0.31 -0.73 -0.41 -0.62 -0.07  0.07
1928  0.96  0.79  0.52  0.81  0.66  0.15  0.30 -0.72 -1.41 -1.31  0.14  0.98
1929  0.97  0.52  0.50  0.55  1.07  0.50 -0.06 -0.69  0.45 -0.21  1.24 -0.03
1930  0.97 -1.06 -0.43 -0.70  0.06  0.58 -0.45 -0.53 -0.20 -0.38 -0.31  1.20
1931  0.08  1.56  1.13  1.28  1.66  0.39  1.49  0.02 -0.01 -0.17  0.34  1.09
1932 -0.26 -0.58  0.51  1.15  0.64  0.10 -0.12 -0.14 -0.40 -0.29 -0.88  0.02
1933  0.29  0.02  0.15 -0.05 -0.50 -0.68 -1.81 -1.56 -2.28 -1.19  0.55 -1.10
1934  0.17  0.68  1.34  1.63  1.23  0.51  0.44  1.54  1.25  2.10  1.63  1.67
1935  1.01  0.79 -0.11  1.10  0.99  1.39  0.68  0.63  0.98  0.21  0.13  1.78
1936  1.79  1.75  1.36  1.32  1.83  2.37  2.57  1.71  0.04  2.10  2.65  1.28
1937  0.00 -0.49  0.38  0.20  0.53  1.75  0.11 -0.35  0.63  0.76 -0.18  0.55
1938  0.50  0.02  0.24  0.27 -0.25 -0.20 -0.21 -0.45 -0.01  0.07  0.48  1.40
1939  1.36  0.07 -0.39  0.45  0.98  1.04 -0.21 -0.74 -1.10 -1.31 -0.88  1.51
1940  2.03  1.74  1.89  2.37  2.32  2.43  2.12  1.40  1.10  1.19  0.68  1.96
1941  2.14  2.07  2.41  1.89  2.25  3.01  2.33  3.31  1.99  1.22  0.40  0.91
1942  1.01  0.79  0.29  0.79  0.84  1.19  0.12  0.44  0.68  0.54 -0.10 -1.00
1943 -0.18  0.02  0.26  1.08  0.43  0.68 -0.36 -0.90 -0.49 -0.04  0.29  0.58
1944  0.18  0.17  0.08  0.72 -0.35 -0.98 -0.40 -0.51 -0.56 -0.40  0.33  0.20
1945 -1.02  0.72 -0.42 -0.40 -0.07  0.56  1.02  0.18 -0.27  0.10 -1.94 -0.74
1946 -0.91 -0.32 -0.41 -0.78  0.50 -0.86 -0.84 -0.36 -0.22 -0.36 -1.48 -0.96
1947 -0.73 -0.29  1.17  0.70  0.37  1.36  0.16  0.30  0.58  0.85 -0.14  1.67
1948 -0.11 -0.74 -0.03 -1.33 -0.23  0.08 -0.92 -1.56 -1.74 -1.32 -0.89 -1.70
1949 -2.01 -3.60 -1.00 -0.53 -1.07 -0.70 -0.56 -1.30 -0.93 -1.41 -0.83 -0.80
1950 -2.13 -2.91 -1.13 -1.20 -2.23 -1.77 -2.93 -0.70 -2.14 -1.36 -2.46 -0.76
1951 -1.54 -1.06 -1.90 -0.36 -0.25 -1.09  0.70 -1.37 -0.08 -0.32 -0.28 -1.68
1952 -2.01 -0.46 -0.63 -1.05 -1.00 -1.43 -1.25 -0.60 -0.89 -0.35 -0.76  0.04
1953 -0.57 -0.07 -1.12  0.05  0.43  0.29  0.74  0.05 -0.63 -1.09 -0.03  0.07
1954 -1.32 -1.61 -0.52 -1.33  0.01  0.97  0.43  0.08 -0.94  0.52  0.72 -0.50
1955  0.20 -1.52 -1.26 -1.97 -1.21 -2.44 -2.35 -2.25 -1.95 -2.80 -3.08 -2.75
1956 -2.48 -2.74 -2.56 -2.17 -1.41 -1.70 -1.03 -1.16 -0.71 -2.30 -2.11 -1.28
1957 -1.82 -0.68  0.03 -0.58  0.57  1.76  0.72  0.51  1.59  1.50 -0.32 -0.55
1958  0.25  0.62  0.25  1.06  1.28  1.33  0.89  1.06  0.29  0.01 -0.18  0.86
1959  0.69 -0.43 -0.95 -0.02  0.23  0.44 -0.50 -0.62 -0.85  0.52  1.11  0.06
1960  0.30  0.52 -0.21  0.09  0.91  0.64 -0.27 -0.38 -0.94  0.09 -0.23  0.17
1961  1.18  0.43  0.09  0.34 -0.06 -0.61 -1.22 -1.13 -2.01 -2.28 -1.85 -2.69
1962 -1.29 -1.15 -1.42 -0.80 -1.22 -1.62 -1.46 -0.48 -1.58 -1.55 -0.37 -0.96
1963 -0.33 -0.16 -0.54 -0.41 -0.65 -0.88 -1.00 -1.03  0.45 -0.52 -2.08 -1.08
1964  0.01 -0.21 -0.87 -1.03 -1.91 -0.32 -0.51 -1.03 -0.68 -0.37 -0.80 -1.52
1965 -1.24 -1.16  0.04  0.62 -0.66 -0.80 -0.47  0.20  0.59 -0.36 -0.59  0.06
1966 -0.82 -0.03 -1.29  0.06 -0.53  0.16  0.26 -0.35 -0.33 -1.17 -1.15 -0.32
1967 -0.20 -0.18 -1.20 -0.89 -1.24 -1.16 -0.89 -1.24 -0.72 -0.64 -0.05 -0.40
1968 -0.95 -0.40 -0.31 -1.03 -0.53 -0.35  0.53  0.19  0.06 -0.34 -0.44 -1.27
1969 -1.26 -0.95 -0.50 -0.44 -0.20  0.89  0.10 -0.81 -0.66  1.12  0.15  1.38
1970  0.61  0.43  1.33  0.43 -0.49  0.06 -0.68 -1.63 -1.67 -1.39 -0.80 -0.97
1971 -1.90 -1.74 -1.68 -1.59 -1.55 -1.55 -2.20 -0.15  0.21 -0.22 -1.25 -1.87
1972 -1.99 -1.83 -2.09 -1.65 -1.57 -1.87 -0.83  0.25  0.17  0.11  0.57 -0.33
1973 -0.46 -0.61 -0.50 -0.69 -0.76 -0.97 -0.57 -1.14 -0.51 -0.87 -1.81 -0.76
1974 -1.22 -1.65 -0.90 -0.52 -0.28 -0.31 -0.08  0.27  0.44 -0.10  0.43 -0.12
1975 -0.84 -0.71 -0.51 -1.30 -1.02 -1.16 -0.40 -1.07 -1.23 -1.29 -2.08 -1.61
1976 -1.14 -1.85 -0.96 -0.89 -0.68 -0.67  0.61  1.28  0.82  1.11  1.25  1.22
1977  1.65  1.11  0.72  0.30  0.31  0.42  0.19  0.64 -0.55 -0.61 -0.72 -0.69
1978  0.34  1.45  1.34  1.29  0.90  0.15 -1.24 -0.56 -0.44  0.10 -0.07 -0.43
1979 -0.58 -1.33  0.30  0.89  1.09  0.17  0.84  0.52  1.00  1.06  0.48 -0.42
1980 -0.11  1.32  1.09  1.49  1.20 -0.22  0.23  0.51  0.10  1.35  0.37 -0.10
1981  0.59  1.46  0.99  1.45  1.75  1.69  0.84  0.18  0.42  0.18  0.80  0.67
1982  0.34  0.20  0.19 -0.19 -0.58 -0.78  0.58  0.39  0.84  0.37 -0.25  0.26
1983  0.56  1.14  2.11  1.87  1.80  2.36  3.51  1.85  0.91  0.96  1.02  1.69
1984  1.50  1.21  1.77  1.52  1.30  0.18 -0.18 -0.03  0.67  0.58  0.71  0.82
1985  1.27  0.94  0.57  0.19  0.00  0.18  1.07  0.81  0.44  0.29 -0.75  0.38
1986  1.12  1.61  2.18  1.55  1.16  0.89  1.38  0.22  0.22  1.00  1.77  1.77
1987  1.88  1.75  2.10  2.16  1.85  0.73  2.01  2.83  2.44  1.36  1.47  1.27
1988  0.93  1.24  1.42  0.94  1.20  0.74  0.64  0.19 -0.37 -0.10 -0.02 -0.43
1989 -0.95 -1.02 -0.83 -0.32  0.47  0.36  0.83  0.09  0.05 -0.12 -0.50 -0.21
1990 -0.30 -0.65 -0.62  0.27  0.44  0.44  0.27  0.11  0.38 -0.69 -1.69 -2.23
1991 -2.02 -1.19  0.74 -1.01 -0.51 -1.47 -0.10  0.36  0.65  0.49  0.42  0.09
1992  0.05  0.31  0.67  0.75  1.54  1.26  1.90  1.44  0.83  0.93  0.93  0.53
1993  0.05  0.19  0.76  1.21  2.13  2.34  2.35  2.69  1.56  1.41  1.24  1.07
1994  1.21  0.59  0.80  1.05  1.23  0.46  0.06 -0.79 -1.36 -1.32 -1.96 -1.79
1995 -0.49  0.46  0.75  0.83  1.46  1.27  1.71  0.21  1.16  0.47 -0.28  0.16
1996  0.59  0.75  1.01  1.46  2.18  1.10  0.77 -0.14  0.24 -0.33  0.09 -0.03
1997  0.23  0.28  0.65  1.05  1.83  2.76  2.35  2.79  2.19  1.61  1.12  0.67
1998  0.83  1.56  2.01  1.27  0.70  0.40 -0.04 -0.22 -1.21 -1.39 -0.52 -0.44
1999 -0.32 -0.66 -0.33 -0.41 -0.68 -1.30 -0.66 -0.96 -1.53 -2.23 -2.05 -1.63
2000 -2.00 -0.83  0.29  0.35 -0.05 -0.44 -0.66 -1.19 -1.24 -1.30 -0.53  0.52
2001  0.60  0.29  0.45 -0.31 -0.30 -0.47 -1.31 -0.77 -1.37 -1.37 -1.26 -0.93
2002  0.27 -0.64 -0.43 -0.32 -0.63 -0.35 -0.31  0.60  0.43  0.42  1.51  2.10                                                                                                                              0  
2003  2.09  1.75  1.51  1.18  0.89  0.68  0.96  0.88  0.01  0.83  0.52  0.33
2004  0.43  0.48  0.61  0.57  0.88  0.04  0.44  0.85  0.75 -0.11 -0.63 -0.17
2005  0.44  0.81  1.36  1.03  1.86  1.17  0.66  0.25 -0.46 -1.32 -1.50  0.20
2006  1.03  0.66  0.05  0.40  0.48  1.04  0.35 -0.65 -0.94 -0.05 -0.22  0.14
2007  0.01  0.04 -0.36  0.16 -0.10  0.09  0.78  0.50 -0.36 -1.45 -1.08 -0.58
2008 -1.00 -0.77 -0.71 -1.52 -1.37 -1.34 -1.67 -1.70 -1.55 -1.76 -1.25 -0.87
2009 -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53  0.09  0.52  0.27 -0.40  0.08
2010  0.83  0.82  0.44  0.78  0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21
2011 -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79
2012 -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48
2013 -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16  0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41
2014  0.30  0.38  0.97  1.13  1.80                                           

You can see that this index jumps around a lot but for the past five months it has suddenly become positive and in May very positive, But this happened in 2010 and other years mostly El Nino Years. So it is difficult to separate out El Nino from the PDO. Notice the consistently high PDO values from 1977 to mid-1998 which some call the Great Pacific Climate Shift. That period of time appears to be highly correlated with overall surface temperature warming and when the PDO went negative, the rate of Warming slowed and is now called the "Hiatus". This certainly raises the question of what will happen to Global Temperatures if indeed the PDO has gone Positive. I personally do not believe it has, but if it has, it will have a big impact on many things.

On the other hand here is the AMO Index which is about the North Atlantic.

YEAR  JAN    FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC
1948 -0.00 -0.02  0.04 -0.06  0.01  0.06 -0.03 -0.01 -0.04  0.02  0.14  0.07
1949  0.16  0.17  0.05  0.11 -0.01  0.01  0.08  0.11  0.08  0.11  0.12  0.13
1950  0.12 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.05 -0.03 -0.04  0.03  0.02 -0.08  0.09  0.10
1951  0.11  0.01  0.02  0.18  0.18  0.30  0.43  0.31  0.26  0.27  0.19  0.19
1952  0.18  0.19  0.24  0.20  0.19  0.39  0.38  0.41  0.37  0.37  0.26  0.35
1953  0.28  0.20  0.15  0.32  0.35  0.29  0.35  0.27  0.29  0.16  0.26  0.27
1954  0.24  0.11  0.11 -0.00  0.08  0.11 -0.03 -0.00  0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.04
1955  0.09  0.05  0.05  0.11  0.19  0.20  0.28  0.19  0.21  0.29  0.40  0.27
1956  0.20  0.11  0.02  0.07 -0.05 -0.25 -0.08 -0.09 -0.08 -0.03 -0.07  0.03
1957 -0.07 -0.09 -0.01 -0.06 -0.11  0.00  0.05  0.21  0.23  0.16  0.10  0.09
1958  0.06  0.20  0.36  0.36  0.21  0.23  0.18  0.17  0.22  0.16  0.20  0.23
1959  0.11  0.13 -0.01  0.01  0.02  0.05 -0.02  0.02  0.14  0.12  0.06  0.12
1960  0.19  0.23  0.10  0.11  0.31  0.33  0.28  0.35  0.22  0.31  0.26  0.15
1961  0.07  0.09  0.16  0.24  0.21  0.04 -0.01  0.05  0.01  0.04  0.08  0.22
1962  0.16  0.16  0.18  0.10  0.03 -0.06  0.00 -0.05  0.02  0.08  0.06  0.20
1963  0.17  0.18  0.15  0.12 -0.07 -0.03 -0.02 -0.06 -0.19 -0.06 -0.04 -0.05
1964 -0.06  0.03  0.05 -0.13  0.05  0.02 -0.13 -0.22 -0.21 -0.26 -0.15 -0.11
1965 -0.19 -0.16 -0.06 -0.08 -0.09 -0.11 -0.18 -0.20 -0.21 -0.23 -0.26 -0.11
1966 -0.06  0.02  0.00  0.06  0.01 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03  0.01  0.03  0.02  0.09
1967  0.09  0.10 -0.02 -0.00 -0.17 -0.25 -0.22 -0.15 -0.08 -0.09 -0.22 -0.14
1968 -0.23 -0.19 -0.20 -0.14 -0.11 -0.25 -0.22 -0.20 -0.13 -0.10 -0.09 -0.11
1969 -0.05  0.12  0.22  0.16  0.02  0.04  0.11 -0.09 -0.09 -0.17 -0.11 -0.02
1970  0.00 -0.04  0.03  0.03 -0.03 -0.17 -0.19 -0.13 -0.12 -0.18 -0.23 -0.20
1971 -0.23 -0.28 -0.30 -0.40 -0.31 -0.35 -0.34 -0.42 -0.35 -0.22 -0.23 -0.29
1972 -0.30 -0.37 -0.42 -0.31 -0.45 -0.47 -0.36 -0.37 -0.29 -0.27 -0.26 -0.34
1973 -0.36 -0.38 -0.33 -0.25 -0.15 -0.16 -0.09 -0.12 -0.12 -0.20 -0.19 -0.22
1974 -0.26 -0.27 -0.39 -0.51 -0.48 -0.43 -0.50 -0.45 -0.49 -0.49 -0.41 -0.35
1975 -0.26 -0.32 -0.29 -0.33 -0.37  0.28 -0.26 -0.17 -0.32 -0.34 -0.33 -0.31
1976 -0.37 -0.43 -0.48 -0.41 -0.47 -0.47 -0.29 -0.17 -0.18 -0.28 -0.40 -0.42
1977 -0.37 -0.32 -0.17 -0.20 -0.15  0.09 -0.09 -0.13 -0.22 -0.21 -0.13 -0.19
1978 -0.09 -0.13 -0.14 -0.18 -0.19 -0.32 -0.27 -0.21 -0.17 -0.19 -0.10 -0.17
1979 -0.18 -0.13 -0.21 -0.22 -0.10 -0.02 -0.08 -0.10 -0.09 -0.07 -0.07 -0.04
1980  0.02 -0.06 -0.12  0.02  0.15  0.13  0.07  0.04  0.01 -0.04 -0.18 -0.23
1981 -0.16 -0.16  0.02 -0.07 -0.06 -0.04 -0.07 -0.09 -0.01 -0.16 -0.11  0.02
1982 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.16 -0.17 -0.16 -0.21 -0.28 -0.28 -0.35 -0.39 -0.36
1893 -0.27 -0.08  0.10  0.08 -0.02 -0.03  0.01 -0.13 -0.19 -0.17 -0.13  0.02
1984 -0.08 -0.06 -0.10 -0.13 -0.14 -0.30 -0.24 -0.20 -0.18 -0.32 -0.40 -0.29
1985 -0.33 -0.31 -0.33 -0.38 -0.31 -0.10 -0.13 -0.26 -0.22 -0.22 -0.27 -0.31
1986 -0.32 -0.25 -0.27 -0.30 -0.20 -0.24 -0.22 -0.25 -0.20 -0.29 -0.37 -0.35
1987 -0.25 -0.19 -0.01  0.05  0.09  0.23  0.30  0.30  0.22  0.07 -0.05  0.07
1988 -0.02 -0.09  0.01  0.07  0.16  0.19  0.13  0.01 -0.07 -0.15 -0.13 -0.14
1989 -0.20 -0.13 -0.23 -0.27 -0.13  0.11  0.20  0.13 -0.07 -0.10 -0.13 -0.13
1990 -0.28 -0.14 -0.16 -0.10 -0.04 -0.03 -0.00  0.07  0.17  0.13 -0.03 -0.01
1991 -0.17 -0.10 -0.05 -0.11 -0.13 -0.11 -0.09 -0.09 -0.02 -0.24 -0.24 -0.19
1992 -0.17 -0.07 -0.07 -0.16 -0.20 -0.13 -0.20 -0.36 -0.35 -0.28 -0.31 -0.26
1993 -0.22 -0.17 -0.22  0.15 -0.14 -0.16 -0.26 -0.21 -0.14 -0.22 -0.30 -0.27
1994 -0.28 -0.30 -0.26  0.18 -0.19 -0.20 -0.21 -0.22 -0.13 -0.04 -0.00 -0.07
1995 -0.04 -0.02  0.03  0.09  0.29  0.38  0.33  0.20  0.07  0.12  0.15  0.06
1996  0.01 -0.01 -0.04  0.03 -0.05 -0.10 -0.09  0.01  0.02 -0.13 -0.15 -0.14
1997 -0.07 -0.02  0.02  0.03  0.06  0.03  0.08  0.03  0.13  0.17  0.07  0.15
1998  0.15  0.31  0.34  0.31  0.40  0.51  0.51  0.53  0.43  0.40  0.34  0.30
1999  0.07  0.08  0.09  0.07  0.18  0.20  0.22  0.33  0.20  0.04 -0.03  0.03
2000 -0.06 -0.02  0.12  0.06  0.12  0.00  0.09  0.12  0.12 -0.02 -0.03 -0.11
2001 -0.11 -0.01  0.03  0.01  0.01  0.22  0.15  0.20  0.31  0.27  0.18  0.23
2002  0.20  0.18  0.16  0.05 -0.03 -0.10 -0.04  0.13  0.10  0.13  0.04  0.02
2003  0.07  0.01  0.13  0.10  0.17  0.23  0.30  0.44  0.47  0.45  0.24  0.24
2004  0.23  0.23  0.18  0.13  0.03  0.20  0.25  0.34  0.26  0.26  0.24  0.21
2005  0.13  0.15  0.30  0.31  0.31  0.35  0.47  0.46  0.44  0.26  0.16  0.24
2006  0.14  0.10  0.08  0.22  0.33  0.35  0.40  0.42  0.38  0.36  0.31  0.19
2007  0.19  0.24  0.15  0.18  0.13  0.11  0.15  0.08  0.12  0.18  0.20  0.13
2008  0.05  0.15  0.18  0.06  0.19  0.28  0.23  0.20  0.22  0.12  0.02  0.04
2009 -0.04 -0.14 -0.14  0.11 -0.04  0.14  0.25  0.17  0.08  0.19  0.09  0.10
2010  0.06  0.20  0.31  0.45  0.48  0.47  0.47  0.55  0.47  0.35  0.26  0.23
2011  0.17  0.13  0.08  0.11  0.17  0.20  0.11  0.17  0.17  0.08 -0.05 -0.02
2012 -0.04  0.03  0.05  0.10  0.19  0.32  0.40  0.45  0.47  0.35  0.19  0.16
2013  0.15  0.14  0.18  0.16  0.12  0.07  0.21  0.22  0.28  0.37  0.15  0.06
2014 -0.04 -0.02 -0.06 -0.07  0.02

The Atlantic has been in its +/Positive/ Warm Phase since 2003 and perhaps earlier as the Index gyrated quite a bit around the turn of the Century.

The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. And here is a later version but I do not have a link that shows it in color but I believe the maps have not changed from the earlier version.

The key maps are shown below:

For some time now we have been in Combination D i.e. PDO-/AMO+ and the graphic labeled Map D shows where one would expect the frequency of drought to be high or low under those conditions and I believe that has been pretty much the case for at least ten years and possibly fifteen.

But what if we move to Combination A or C i.e. PDO+/AMO- or PDO+/AMO+ ?  Condition A is pretty much the inverse of the recent past with the Southwest and Central Part of the Nation being pretty much drought free. Condition C which is a change of the PDO to +/Positive/Warm with a continuation of the AMO being +/Positive/Warm means a high probability of drought for the Northern Tier to the Great Lakes and also the East Coast from Virgina to Florida and west to the Mississippi River i.e. major agriculture problems for the U.S. - Can you say "Depression"?  So this makes a difference a big difference.

McCabe Drought AMO/PDO

 

Drought frequency (in percent of years) for positive and negative regimes of the PDO and AMO. (A) Positive PDO, negative AMO. (B) Negative PDO, negative AMO. (C) Positive PDO, positive AMO. (D) Negative PDO, positive AMO.

But what about the impacts outside of the U.S.?

This table is a first attempt at putting it all together. It is just that a first attempt. Anyone with additional information please post it in the comments section following this article:

Geographical Area PDO+ PDO- AMO+ AMO- Comments
Western US

Wet. High ratio of El Ninos to La Ninas

Dry. High ratio of La Ninas to El Ninos Amplifies PDO -

Amplifies PDO +

The Arctic Oscillation (A) mediates the impact of the PDO on the Northern Tier and other parts of the U.S.
Eastern US Dry Wet

Cold Winter

Dry and Warm Summer

Warm Winter

Wet and Cold Summer

AMO + tends to correlate with North American Oscillation (NAO)  which means a colder Europe and cold air intrusions into the Center of the U.S. and the North East.
Europe NA NA

Cold Winter

Wet and Warm Summer

Warm Winter

Dry and Cold Summer

South America West Coast impacted more Often by El Nino East Coast impacted more often by La Nina Moisture further North Wet Summer Note when the North Atlantic is Warm the South Atlantic is Cool and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts to the south. 
West Africa NA NA Wet Summer Dry Summer Wet West African summers tend to increase hurricane activity in the U.S.
Australia Dry Wet NA NA PDO Impacts the Indian Ocean Dipole IOD so that impacts both Australia and India but probably in the opposite way as India and Australia are in different hemispheres.
India Dry Wet NA NA
Comments Arctic Oscillation (AO) very important mediator of PDO impacts in the US especially the Northrn Tier. North American Oscillation (NAO) very important mediator of AMO impacts especially for the Central and Norther Tier of the U.S. and Europe

Attempting to put this into a two-dimensional matrix may not have been a good idea as there are not only impacts among the ocean cycles shown across the top of this matrix but also interactions with the air pressure cycles (which themselves may be related to Ocean Cycles.) So look at this matrix as just a first attempt at showing the interactions. I will be refining it.  There may be conflicts not only in the literature but also due to the interaction of so many different forcings including climate change so again this is just a starting point to think about how these different cycles impact our climate. NA perhaps should have been NS as meaning not significant. All the cycles impact everything but some have more impact than others and that is what I am attempting to show.

Click here for the latest data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and other sources on the Econintersect Weather and Climate page.









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