30 May 2014: ECRI's WLI Growth Marginally Declines

June 6th, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index continued its improvement cycle, remaining in positive territory but declining to a four week low. A positive number predicts economic expansion to come within the next six months. This week ECRI released their Future Inflation Gauge which is discussed below.

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to show expansion although marginally weaker this week.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index declined marginally. The growth rate again weakened from 5.3% to 4.8% - and the level of the index fell from 135.3 to 134.9.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The April update for March shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally AGAIN month-to-month - and is showing a clear decline in the rate of growth trend line. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

US Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 105.2 from the revised March 104.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The April reading was initially reported as 104.7.

"With the USFIG reaching a 13-month high, underlying inflation pressures have begun to build," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The April economy's rate of growth (released on 23 May) improved this month and now is on an upward trendline.

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

 









Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.















 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved