April 21 Weather and Climate Forecast

April 21st, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

Econintersect Weather and Climate Forecast Update

Written by

Yellen believes a significant part of current economic softness is weather related.  You can read about that here.  (Actually it does not say much about the weather i.e. it is just an excuse.)

Let's get real. El Nino still appears to be on track for an appearance this summer which will first impact the Southern Hemisphere and then the Northern Hemisphere this winter.

Short term 6 - 14 days, the cold intrusion has returned as a feature of the U.S.  forecasts and the low degree of confidence that NOAA has in their forecasts continues.

Follow up:

Here is another ENSO forecast which comes out once a month. This is put out by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society which is based at Columbia University.

IRI ENSO ForecastIRI ENSO Forecast

It also shows a strong likelihood of an El Nino developing.

North Carolina has a very good State Climatologist so that is a good place to seek information on the impact of a possible El Nino. The following charts were all prepared by NOAA but I found them here so I am using them from the North Carolina Climatologist's web site.

This chart is interesting:

Typical El Nino

Notice all the red off the coast of Ecuador and Peru. The current forecast map looks a lot like this but not quite the amount of warm water off of Ecuador and Peru. So that is the difference between what is currently projected and a truly powerful El Nino.

This chart shows the impacts for December through February.

Winter El Nino Impacts

And here is the information for June through August. As you can see, El Nino (as is La Nina) is a worldwide event.

El Nino June through August

These charts do not show the impact on ocean fisheries which is another important part of the story. Wet or dry; warm or cold can have an impact related to the difference from the norm. Crops that like moisture usually thrive during wet periods but too much moisture can also be harmful and certain crops prefer it to be relatively dry. So one has to look at the impacts region by region. And of course there is the risk of flooding in some places.

Some have raised issues about the coffee crop and in the U.S. the Florida citrus harvest is often impacted by El Nino.  Every area highlighted on this map is likely to be impacted either negatively or positively by the probably El Nino which so far no one has ventured to classify as being weak, average or strong although in PDO-/AMO+ conditions, the odds favor a relatively weak and short event i.e. one year not two.

Click here for the latest data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and other sources on the Econintersect Weather and Climate page.










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.















 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved