Rail Week Ending 28 December 2013: Year End Traffic Surge

January 3rd, 2014
in econ_news, syndication

Econintersect: Week 52 of 2013 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) showed significant growth according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). However, the surge on the slowest rail week of the year was not significant enough to overcome a moderate slowing of railcar loads beginning around Thanksgiving relative to the growth seen in the period preceding.

 

Follow up:

  • Four week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is decelerating, but is better than the 4 week rolling average one year ago;
  • 13 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is decelerating, but is better than the 13 week rolling average one year ago;
  • 52 week rolling average rate of growth (compared with the average one year ago) is accelerating, and is better than the 52 week rolling average one year ago.

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Dec. 28, 2013 with 230,933 total U.S. carloads, up 8.1 percent compared with the same week last year. Total U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 172,396 units up 10.6 percent compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. weekly rail traffic was 403,329 carloads and intermodal units, up 9.2 percent compared with the same week last year.

Nine of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, including grain with 18,201 carloads, up 36.8 percent; petroleum and petroleum products with 13,532 carloads, up 29.8 percent; and nonmetallic minerals and products with 19,174 carloads, up 14.3 percent. Commodities showing a decrease compared with the same week last year included metallic ores and metals with 22,064 carloads, down 7.2 percent.

For the 52 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 14,608,403 carloads, down 0.5 percent from the same point last year, and 12,831,692 intermodal units, up 4.6 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the 52 weeks of 2013 was 27,440,095 carloads and intermodal units, up 1.8 percent from last year.

USA coal production is up 5.5% same week year-over-year (last weeks data as the EIA has not updated their website) - and coal accounts for almost half of carloads.

This Week
Carloads Intermodal Total
This week Year-over-Year 8.1% 10.6% 9.2%
Ignoring coal and grain 4.4%
Year Cumulative to Date -0.5% 4.6% 1.8%

[click on graph below to enlarge]

Current Rail Chart

/images/z rail1.png

From EIA.gov:

For the week ended December 21, 2013:

  • U.S. coal production totaled approximately 19.5 million short tons (mmst)
  • This production estimate is 3.1% higher than last week's estimate and 5.5% higher than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2012
  • Coal production east of the Mississippi River totaled 8.2 mmst
  • Coal production west of the Mississippi River totaled 11.3 mmst
  • U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 976.6 mmst, 1.8% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2012
  • Source: AAR

     

     















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