Two regional surveys show manufacturing expanding in August 2013, while the Richmond Fed survey shows zero expansion or contraction.
Fifth District manufacturing activity was little changed in September, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments, capacity utilization, and vendor lead time flattened, while the volume of new orders slowed. The backlog of new orders remained in decline. Finished goods inventories and raw materials inventories built up at about the same pace as in August. Manufacturing employment fell and the average work week shrank, while wage growth remained robust.
Looking ahead six months, manufacturers’ optimism about business prospects strengthened. Firms expected a greater volume of new orders, rising capacity utilization, with shorter lead-times and a solid increase in shipments. Further, they anticipated that the backlog of orders would grow. Additionally, survey participants expected a jump in capital expenditures. Manufacturers looked for the number of employees to climb and average workweek to moderate. Their outlook was for slightly slower average wage growth.
Raw materials and finished goods prices rose more quickly in September compared to last month. In addition, relative to their outlook of a month ago, surveyed manufacturers expected prices to rise more quickly in the next six months.
Current Activity
The composite index of manufacturing activity was flat in September, at a reading of 0 following last month’s 14, as the component indexes cooled this month. The index for shipments dropped to −1 from last month’s reading of 17, and the index for new orders settled at a reading of 5 compared to 16. The index for the number of employees fell twelve points from last month to settle at −6.
Vendor lead-time was virtually unchanged, remaining at an index of 1 for a second month. Capacity utilization also remained tepid, with that index at 1 after the August reading of 3. The index for the backlog of orders dropped a point to finish the survey period at −7. Finished goods inventories built up moderately, leaving that indicator at 11, two points below the August reading. The raw materials inventories index tacked on a point to finish at 14 in September.
Read entire source document from Richmond Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed Survey (dark green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.