23 August 2013: ECRI's WLI Growth Again Declines Marginally

August 30th, 2013
in econ_news, syndication

ECRI's WLI Growth Index declined, but remains positive. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. 

Follow up:

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

ECRI WLI Ticks Down

A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up last week but the annualized growth rate slipped, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.3 in the week ended Aug. 23, its highest in three weeks. It stood at 131.0 the previous week, a revision to the initially reported level of 131.1. The index's annualized growth rate slipped to 4.2 percent, the lowest since the week ended July 19. It stood at 4.5 percent a week earlier.

ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The August update for July shows the rate of economic growth improved marginally month-to-month - and is positive. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Dips

U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly lower in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge slipped to 102.9 from a downwardly revised 103.1 in June, originally reported as 103.3, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"With the USFIG dropping to an 11-month low, U.S. inflation pressures continue to ebb," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.


ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index.. The July economy's rate of growth had remained in a very tight stable range since the end of the Great Recession - however, it appears to have some degradation (less good).

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI


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