Summary of forecaster’s outlook follows.
Outlook for Growth Weakens
The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy over the next four years is weaker than that of three months ago, according to 41 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel expects real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter and 2.3 percent next quarter and to rise to 2.9 percent in the second quarter of 2014. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters see real GDP growing 1.5 percent in 2013, down from the previous estimate of 2.0 percent. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.6 percent in 2014 and 2.9 percent in 2015, before falling to 2.5 percent in 2016.
The outlook for the labor market remains nearly unchanged. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 7.5 percent in 2013, before falling to 7.1 percent in 2014, 6.6 percent in 2015, and 6.1 percent in 2016. These projections are similar to those of the last survey.
The forecasters’ projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 183,800 in 2013 and 180,100 in 2014, as the table below shows. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Real GDP (%) | Unemployment Rate (%) | Payrolls (000s/month) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous | New | Previous | New | Previous | New | |
Quarterly data: | ||||||
2013:Q3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 142.7 | 169.4 |
2013:Q4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 173.3 | 178.6 |
2014:Q1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 179.0 | 171.2 |
2014:Q2 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 184.9 | 185.4 |
2014:Q3 | N.A. | 2.9 | N.A. | 7.0 | N.A. | 181.4 |
Annual data (projections are based on annual average levels): | ||||||
2013 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 169.8 | 183.8 |
2014 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 180.4 | 180.1 |
2015 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 | N.A. | N.A. |
2016 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 6.1 | N.A. | N.A. |