Econintersect: What surges in May can sag in June. That is the story of IP (Industrial Production) for Japan. June 2013 IP for Japan fell 3.3% month-over-month, following a jump of 1.8% for May and +0.95% for April. June saw the largest decline in more than two years. On a year-over-year basis June was the thirteenth consecutive decline. Over the last 13 months the year-over-year decline has averaged more than 5%, slightly more than the 4.8% decline in June.
Month-over-month IP fell by the largest amount since March 2011, the month of the devastating megaquake and tsunami.
Year-over-year IP:
Click on graph for larger image.
The decline of 3.3% was more than double what was expected, according to Bloomberg. Bloomberg also reports that a huge rebound is expected in July (to +6.5% MoM), followed by a small drop of 0.9% in August.
In spite of the IP decline, exports increased in June to the third highest level in two years. Exports totaled ¥6,061 billion ($60 billion).
Meanwhile imports eased in June. Japan had the smallest balance of trade deficit (¥181 billion, $1.8 million) since the last surplus in July 2012.
Sources:
- Japan Industrial Production MoM (Trading Economics)
- Japan Industrial Production YoY (Trading Economics)
- Japan Output Falls Most Since 2011 in June After May Surge (Keiko Ujikane, Bloomberg, 29 July 2013)
- Japan Exports (Trading Economics)
- Japan Imports (Trading Economics)
- Japan Stocks Rise as Japanese Exporters Gain on Weak Yen (Jonathan Burgos, Bloomberg, 30 July 2013)