05 July 2013: ECRI's WLI Growth Declines to 2013 Low

July 12th, 2013
in econ_news, syndication

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index

The readings improved slightly but the WLI is at a level not seen since 14 December 2012. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months.

Follow up:

Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call.

Here is this weeks update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):


A measure of future U.S. economic growth strengthened in the latest week to its highest in more than two years, while the annualized growth rate also edged higher, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.2 in the week ended July 12 from a revised 130.1 the prior week. That was originally reported as 130.3.

The index's annualized growth rate strengthened to 4.5 percent from the previous week's revised 4.3 percent, originally reported as 4.6 percent.



ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The June update for June shows the rate of economic growth again declined month-to-month - but is still positive. The current values:

U.S. Coincident Index

/images/z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge

/images/z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Drops


Price pressures continue to lessen in June, according to a report released Friday by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The ECRI U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 103.3 last month from 103.7 in May and 105.5 in April. The gauge is designed to measure the economy's underlying price pressures and predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.

"With the [index] falling further to a seven-month low, U.S. inflation pressures have clearly waned," says Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI director.


ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index.. The June economy's rate of growth has remained in a very tight stable range since the end of the Great Recession - however, it appears to have some degradation (less good).

U.S. Lagging Index

/images/z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI


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