All 4 regional surveys released to date show manufacturing expanding in June 2013.
Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region advanced moderately in June after contracting at a less pronounced rate in May, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. All broad indicators — shipments, new orders and employment — landed in positive territory. Most other indicators showed similar notable improvement. District contacts reported that backlogs were down but just barely, whereas capital utilization improved from May readings. The gauge for delivery times was little changed and finished goods inventories continued to grow, though at a slightly slower rate.
Looking forward, assessments of business prospects for the next six months were generally in line with last month's expectations. Contacts anticipated continued growth in shipments, new orders, and capacity utilization in the months ahead while they anticipated backlogs would grow more slowly.
Survey participants indicated that both raw materials and finished goods prices grew at a somewhat quicker rate than a month ago. Respondents expected raw materials to grow at a somewhat quicker pace in the next six months than they had anticipated last month, while they expected finished goods prices to grow at a slightly slower rate than last month's outlook.
The seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — gained ten points in June to settle at 8. Among the index's components, shipments inched up three points to 11, the gauge for new orders jumped nineteen points to finish at 9, and the jobs index added seven points to end at 4.
Most other indicators also suggested stronger activity. The index for capacity utilization returned to positive territory, picking up seven points to settle at 1, and the index for backlogs of orders gained ten points to finish at −1. The delivery times index was nearly unchanged at 1, while gauges for inventories were mixed in June. The raw materials inventory index edged up two points to finish at 9, and the index for finished goods inventories moved down four points to end at 2.
Read entire source document from Richmond Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed Survey (dark green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.