Econintersect: Week 16 of 2013 ending April 20 shows same week total rail traffic mixed according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR):
- Four week rolling average is improving (normal for this time of year) even though the weekly data is declined;
- 13 week rolling average is declining (NOT normal for this time of year);
- 52 week rolling average is declining (NOT normal for this time of year);
- The weekly count is down even ignoring coal and grain.
A summary of the data:
"Four of the 10 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2012, led by petroleum and petroleum products, up 40.1 percent. Commodities showing a decrease included grain, down 21.8 percent.
For the first 16 weeks of 2013, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 4,403,958 carloads, down 2.3 percent from the same point last year, and 3,799,366 intermodal units, up 4.6 percent from last year. Total U.S. traffic for the first 16 weeks of 2013 was 8,203,324 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.7 percent from last year.”
USA coal production is down 1.0% same week year-over-year, and coal over the last few months is becoming a neutral dynamic on rail.
|This week Year-over-Year||-2.0%||0.6%||-2.3%|
|Ignoring coal and grain||-0.7%|
|Year Cumulative to Date||-2.3%||4.6%||0.7%|
[click on graph below to enlarge]
Current Rail Chart
For the week ended April 20, 2013: