Econintersect: CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices in the U.S. increased in November 2012 7.4% year-over-year (increased 0.3% month-over-month). This is the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year increase.
“As we close out 2012 the pending index suggests prices will remain strong,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Given that the recently released Qualified Mortgage rules issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau are not expected to significantly restrict credit availability relative to today, the gains made in 2012 will likely be sustained into 2013.”
“For the first time in almost six years, most U.S. markets experienced sustained increases in home prices in 2012,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We still have a long way to go to return to 2005-2006 levels, but all signals currently point to a progressive stabilization of the housing market and the positive trend in home price appreciation to continue into 2013.”
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.7 percent in November 2012 compared to November 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.9 percent in November 2012 compared to October 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that December 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 7.9 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2011 and fall by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis from November 2012 reflecting a seasonal winter slowdown. Excluding distressed sales, December 2012 house prices are poised to rise 8.4 percent year-over-year from December 2011 and by 0.7 percent month-over-month from November 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month."
Comparison of Home Price Indices - Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue line, left axis), CoreLogic (green line, left axis) and National Association of Realtors (red line, right axis)
The way to understand the dynamics of home prices is to watch the direction of the rate of change - and not necessarily whether the prices are getting better or worse. Home prices are improving - with the National Association of Realtors home prices currently showing the largest price gains.
Year-over-Year Price Change Home Price Indices - Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue bar), CoreLogic (yellow bar) and National Association of Realtors (red bar)
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