>

24 November 2012 Unemployment Claims: Now 3.3% Higher than Same Week in 2011

November 29th, 2012
in econ_news, syndication

Blue Line 4 Week Average

The market was expecting 395,000 to 400,000 vs the 393,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average is up from 396,250 to 405,250. There seems little effect this week due to Hurricane Sandy. The four week average is the highest seen in 2012 - and higher than any other reading since October 2011.

Follow up:

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data - specifically there is a decline in unemployment in the last third of the year (see bottom graph below). The average year-over-year decline in the initial unemployment claims to date is 9.3%. However, the 4 week average of year-over-year decline is now minus 3.3% showing that the trend on initial unemployment claims is worsening.

This is the highest 4 week moving average claims in over one year.


From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 393,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 416,000. The 4-week moving average was 405,250, an increase of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average of 397,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending November 17, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 17 was 3,287,000, a decrease of 70,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,357,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,296,250, an increase of 6,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,290,000.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims - 4 Week Average - Seasonally Adjusted - 2010 (blue line), 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line)

Steven Hansen









Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.













 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
Econintersect Features
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Live Market Commentary
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
Live Market Conditions
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2015 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved