Econintersect: For the first time in over a year the HSBC PMI reading for China has moved back above the 50 demarcation line between contraction and expansion. The flash (preliminary) reading for November stands at 50.4, comfortably in expansion territory. The index is up from 49.5 in October and a value of 47.6 in August, a reading that had not been seen since the depths of the Great Recession. The manufacturing output index registered an even stronger advance to 51.3 for November, up from 48.2 in October.
Follow up:The HSBC PMI survey covers mainly small and mid-size privately owned companies that are especially sensitive to the level of exports. A second index, the official government PMI covers mainly large and government owned enterprises which are less sensitive to the export market. The official PMI has been consistently higher than the HSBC index for nearly 1 1/2 years and has only dipped just barely below 50 for the first time in over a year for both August and September but turned up above 50 in October.
From the press release:
Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:“As November’s flash reading of HSBC manufacturing PMI bounced back to the expansionary territory for the first time in 13 months, this confirms that the economic recovery continues to gain momentum towards the year end. However, it is still the early stage of recovery and global economic growth remains fragile. This calls for a continuation of policy easing to strengthen the recovery.”
- HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC, Markit, press release, 22 November 2012)
- China: Manufacturing Returns to Growth (GEI News, 01 November 2012)