Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Activity Slows but Grows in September 2012

September 27th, 2012
in econ_news, syndication

Follow up:

According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed somewhat, although producers' expectations for future activity remained relatively positive. "Factories reported only minimal overall growth in our region in September, and both production and new orders fell slightly" said Wilkerson.  "But firms anticipate growth to pick up later this year and on into next year."

Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed somewhat in September, although producers expectations for future activity remained relatively positive. Direct impacts from the economic situation in Europe remained minimal overall. However, a few respondents indicated business conditions have deteriorated further with European customers and suppliers. The majority of price indexes in the survey edged slightly higher.

The month-over-month composite index was 2 in September, down from 8 in August and 5 in July, and the lowest in nine months (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Manufacturing growth decreased at most durable- and nondurable goods-producing plants, with the exception of metal and transportation products which posted a slight increase. Most other month-over-month indexes also fell in September. The production index dropped from 7 to - 4, and the shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also moved into negative territory. The employment index eased from 2 to 1, while the new orders for export index inched higher but remained below zero. Both inventory indexes eased but were still in positive territory.

Most year-over-year factory indexes decreased from the previous month. The composite year-over-year index dropped from 18 to 11, and the production and shipments indexes also moved lower. The new order and order backlog indexes posted their lowest levels since mid-2010, and the employment index slipped from 20 to 17. The capital expenditures index decreased from 21 to 17, and the new orders for exports index fell into negative territory. The raw materials inventory index eased from 16 to 11, and the finished goods inventory index also decreased.

Despite the overall slowdown, most future factory indexes were little changed and remained at generally favorable levels. The future composite index was unchanged at 16, while the future shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes increased slightly. The future employment index was stable at 16, while the future production index eased somewhat from 31 to 29. The future capital expenditures index fell for the second straight month, while the new orders for export index posted no change. The future raw materials inventory index rose from 2 to 9, but the finished goods inventory index decreased from 10 to 6.

The majority of price indexes increased slightly, though most changes were minimal. The month-over-month finished goods price index rose from 0 to 5, and the raw materials price index increased for the third straight month. The year-over-year finished goods index stayed flat at 35, but the raw materials index increased from 49 to 60. The future raw materials price index rose slightly, while the future finished goods price index edged lower, indicating fewer firms plan to pass recent cost increases through to customers.

read complete source document from Kansas City Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

/images/z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report)

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Empire State Survey (green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data

/images/z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.



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