Philly Fed: Forecasters in 3Q2012 Revise Their Estimates Down for Growth

August 10th, 2012
in econ_news, syndication

Predictions including inflation and unemployment follow.

Follow up:

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys
Real GDP (%)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Payrolls (000s/month)
Previous
New
Previous
New
Previous
New
Quarterly data
2012:Q3
2.5
1.6
8.0
8.2
170.0
125.0
2012:Q4
2.6
2.2
7.9
8.1
172.6
135.3
2013:Q1
2.6
1.8
7.9
8.0
170.3
151.7
2013:Q2
2.7
2.3
7.7
7.9
185.8
139.7
2013:Q3
N.A.
2.5
N.A.
7.8
N.A.
149.0
Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels)
2012
2.3
2.2
8.1
8.2
171.9
154.6
2013
2.7
2.1
7.7
7.9
175.7
143.2
2014
3.1
2.7
7.2
7.3
N.A.
N.A.
2015
3.4
3.1
6.6
7.0
N.A.
N.A.

Higher Risk of a Negative Quarter

The forecasters have revised upward the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters. For the current quarter, they predict a 13.8 percent chance of negative growth, up from 12.2 percent in the survey of three months ago. As the table below shows, the panelists have also made upward revisions to their forecasts for the following three quarters.

Risk of a Negative Quarter (%)
Quarterly data
Previous
New
2012: Q3
12.2
13.8
2012: Q4
14.5
17.0
2013: Q1
17.3
21.2
2013: Q2
17.8
21.0
2013: Q3
N.A.
19.1

Revisions to the projections for long-term inflation depend on the measure. Over the next 10 years, 2012 to 2021, the forecasters expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.35 percent at an annual rate, lower than the estimate of 2.48 percent from the survey of three months ago. The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average headline PCE inflation remained unchanged at 2.20 percent.

Median Short-Run and Long-Run Projections for Inflation (Annualized Percentage Points)
Headline CPI
Core CPI
Headline PCE
Core PCE
Previous
Current
Previous
Current
Previous
Current
Previous
Current
Quarterly
2012:Q3
2.3
1.5
2.0
2.2
1.9
1.5
1.7
1.9
2012:Q4
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.7
1.8
2013:Q1
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.9
2013:Q2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.0
2013:Q3
N.A.
2.2
N.A.
2.1
N.A.
2.1
N.A.
2.0
Q4/Q4 Annual Averages
2012
2.3
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.8
1.9
2013
2.1
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.0
2014
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
Long-Term Annual Averages
2012-2016
2.35
2.20
N.A.
N.A.
2.04
2.00
N.A.
N.A.
2012-2021
2.48
2.35
N.A.
N.A.
2.20
2.20
N.A.
N.A.

 

 

source: read the full report

 

 









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