Econintersect: ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) Chief Operations officer Lakshman Achuthan stated today (10 July 2012) on Bloomberg Television that a recession has already begun. ECRI first declared a recession was coming in 6-9 months at the very end of last September. They reaffirmed that forecast in December and again in April and again in May. Now they are doubling down again with the declaration that a recession has started. The video of the full interview is coming up after the Read more... break.
Follow up:Achuthan pointed out that it usually is not clear that a recession has started until some time after. He pointed out that it was not obvious to most people, including the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) which makes the official recession dating determinations, that a recession had started in December 2007 until after Lehman collapsed in September 2008. The NBER actually made the announcement in December 2008, a full twelve months after the recession started.
Here is the video from Bloomberg:
The EEI (Econintersect Economic Indicator) which is a coincident measure of the Main Street economy does not show a recession is likely to start in July or August.