China: Prices Falling Off a Cliff, Trade Balance Unexpectedly Positive
July 10th, 2012
in econ_news, syndication
Econintersect: The words China and deflation were first used in a GEI News headline on 09 June 2012. Exactly one month later The New York Times
has gotten on board. In an article yesterday (09 July 2012) by Keith Bradsher, The Times reported that prices of assets, including stocks and real estate, products and commodities are falling rapidly in China. The June CPI for China has come in 2.2% higher than a year ago, but this is down from 6.5% over the past eleven months and had its third consecutive negative reading month-over-month. The PPI for June declined 2.5% year-over-year.
Follow up:
Food, tobacco, liquor and clothing were the strongest categories in the CPI, all above 3% growth year-over-year. The complete official press releases are reproduced at the end of this article, including data tables and graphs.
In news just breaking on 10 July 2012, the June balance of trade for China widened to a surplus of $31.7 billion. This was 32% higher than the $24 billion expected and was the strongest month in three years. This put the surplus for the second quarter at $68.8 billion, higher than the amount expected by many for the entire year (around $50 billion, on average) and dwarfing the first quarter surplus that was less than $1 billion.
The cause of the surprise was an unexpectedly low amount of imports. From Reuters:
Annual import growth of 6.3 percent in June fell far short of the 12.7 percent forecast by economists and the 12.7 percent achieved in May, indicating both a drop-off in domestic demand and the running down of inventories by exporters worried about the weakness of new order growth.
"In today's 'accentuate the negative' world, this is going to put the focus on the domestic demand angle and the hard landing story," Tim Condon, chief economist and head of Asian economic research at ING in Singapore, told Reuters.
At 6.3%, the growth in imports fell far short of the 11.3% growth in exports.
And, as if to add an exclamation point, FDI (foreign direct investment in China has been weak for many months, with most of that lower amount going into the service sector after years of strong manufacturing sector investment.
Michael Pettis has been saying for months in articles posted at GEI Analysis that major economic adjustments are necessary for China. He was quoted in today’s New York Times:
Michael Pettis, a finance professor at the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, said that falling prices could even be good for China.
While all of this has been happening China’s outward investment has been continuing the accelerated pace of last year.
Click on graphic for larger image.
Following are the press releases from National Bureau of Statistics of China:
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Consumer Prices for June 2012 |
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National Bureau of Statistics of China 2012-07-09 14:26:36 |
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Producer Prices for the Industrial Sector for June |
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National Bureau of Statistics of China 2012-07-09 16:31:57 |
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Sources:
- Price Data Suggest Specter of Deflation in China (Keith Bradsher, The New York Times, 09 July 2012)
- China: Economic Numbers Weaken, Inflation Slows. Does Deflation Await? (GEI News, 09 June 2012)
- Could Deflation Come to China? (John Lounsbury, GEI Opinion, 11 June 2012)
- China’s Trade Surplus Surges to $31.7 Billion, A Three Year High (Eric Platt, Business Insider, 09 July 2012)
- UPDATE 2 – China trade surplue jumps as import growth falters (Kevin Yao, Reuters, 10 July 2012)
- China: Foreign investment rising modestly in 2012 (MarketWatch, 10 July 2012)
- China: Trade Surplus Jumps (GEI News, 10 May 2012)
- China: Will a Concrete Bubble Turn into Concrete Shoes? (Craig Tindale, GEI Opinion, 05 July 2012)
- China: Financial Repression Must End (Michael Pettis, GEI Analysis, 05 July 2012)
- China: Limits to Debt Fueled Growth (Michael Pettis, GEI Analysis, 22 June 2012)
- Chinese Outward Investment: Acceleration Features the U.S. (Derek Scissors, The Heritage Foundation, 09 July 2012)
- National Bureau of Statistics of China (Press Releases, 09 July 2012)





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