March 9th, 2012
Econintersect: CoreLogic has released its January 2012 Report (The MarketPulse™) and sees some signs that the residential real estate market may be getting better. Some of the keys are mentioned in this excerpt:
This month's MarketPulse reports that the real estate market is showing positive signs with upward trending sales activity and a healthy month's supply of homes for sale. The mortgage market is slowly growing on the strength of refinance activity that may fade over the coming year as interest rates rise, but may be replaced by increased home sales and resulting purchase loans.
Follow up:The changes are not dramatic. As can be seen in the table below, Econintersect finds a number of key parameters have not improved:
- Distressed sales remain at levels seen for over a year.
- Prices (HPI – Home Price Index) is not showing any significant deviation from the marginal decline seen over the past two years.
- Delinquencies remain at levels seen in 2009, modestly below 2010.
- Completed foreclosures are down in 2011 indicating possible deferment of REO (real estate owned by banks) activity into 2012 and beyond. GEI Analysis has reported that the foreclosure completion process still has 2/3 to go before the bubble deflation is complete.
- Negative equity remains in the 11 million unit range and negative equity share remains between 22% and 23%.
- REO sales of foreclosed properties has been declining from year to year, even as the foreclosure numbers have been building .
One positive indicator:
- Short sales are increasing; these often reflect advantages for buyers, sellers, lenders and surrounding neighborhoods than do foreclosures.
Click on table for larger image.
Two other graphics that reflect on the lack of progress in turning the corner in residential real estate:
Another mortgage data report out today from LPS (Lender Processing Services) reports that foreclosure filings were up sharply in January (as did CoreLogic) but LPS broke out the detail by state and reported that intitial judicial foreclosure filings were the biggest contributor to the increase. This could be because lenders may have felt that they will have a better standing in court as a result of the foreclosure abuse settlement that was nearing final agreement in that month. See GEI News.
Here is a map that shows the distribution of new foreclosure activity by state.
Click on map for larger image.
- The MarketPulse™ (CoreLogic, 08 March 2012)
- February 2012 Mortgage Performance Observations (LPS Mortgage Monitor, Data as of January, 2012 Month-end)
- Critics: Mortgage Deal is a Cave-In to Banks (GEI News, 09 February 2012)