February 15th, 2012
Econintersect: Looking into the minds of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gives insights on how they view the economy. The January 25, 2012 meeting statement provided the actions taken, but the meeting minutes released today provides the detailed discussion.
Econintersect noted from the meeting statement:
No new programs were announced - and the FOMC voted to continue doing whatever they were doing- although the FOMC extended its outlook when the next rate increase was possible to the end of 2014 (18 month extension). Most of the difference in this January meeting statement amounts to word engineering - changing words to other words having the same meaning.
Econintersect considers any interest rate policy projections beyond a few months to be speculation and the 18 month extension of current policy could have been no change or 36 months with no change in significance.
Follow up:Also discussed in these minutes were incorporation of participants' projections of appropriate future monetary policy into the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which the FOMC releases four times each year. These projections were included in the meeting statement post.
It makes sense to review the meeting statement post before reading this post.
The short version of where the economy is:
In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants agreed that the information received since the Committee met in December suggested that the economy had been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in growth abroad. In general, labor market indicators pointed to some further improvement in labor market conditions, but progress was gradual and the unemployment rate remained elevated. Household spending had continued to advance at a moderate pace despite still-sluggish growth in real disposable income, but growth in business fixed investment had slowed. The housing sector remained depressed, with very low levels of activity; there were, however, signs of improvement in some local housing markets. Many participants observed that some indicators bearing on the economy's recent performance had shown greater-than-expected improvement, but a number also noted less favorable data; one noted that growth in final sales appeared to have slowed in the fourth quarter of last year even as output growth picked up. Inflation had been subdued in recent months, there was little evidence of wage or cost pressures, and longer-term inflation expectations had remained stable.
The short version of their economic outlook:
With respect to the economic outlook, participants generally anticipated that economic growth over coming quarters would be modest and, consequently, expected that the unemployment rate would decline only gradually. A number of factors were seen as likely to restrain the pace of economic expansion, including the slowdown in economic activity abroad, fiscal tightening in the United States, the weak housing market, further household deleveraging, high levels of uncertainty among households and businesses, and the possibility of increased volatility in financial markets until the fiscal and banking issues in the euro area are more fully addressed. Participants continued to expect these headwinds to ease over time and so anticipated that the recovery would gradually gain strength. However, participants agreed that strains in global financial markets continued to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. With unemployment expected to remain elevated, and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, almost all participants expected inflation to remain subdued in coming quarters--that is, to run at or below the 2 percent level that the Committee judges most consistent with its statutory mandate over the longer run.
In discussing the household sector, meeting participants noted that consumer spending had grown moderately in recent months. Consumer sentiment had improved since last summer, though its level was still quite low. Business contacts in the retail sector reported generally satisfactory holiday sales, but high-end retailers saw strong gains while lower-end retailers saw mixed results. Contacts also reported widespread discounting. Major express delivery companies indicated very high volumes at year-end and into January. Several participants observed that consumer spending had outpaced growth in personal disposable income last year, and a few noted that households remained pessimistic about their income prospects and uncertain about the economic outlook. These observations suggested that growth of consumer spending might slow. However, a few other participants pointed to increasing job gains in recent months as contributing to an improving trend in real incomes and thus supporting continued moderate growth in consumer spending.
Reports from business contacts indicated that activity in the manufacturing, energy, and agricultural sectors continued to advance in recent months. Businesses generally reported that they remained cautious regarding capital spending and hiring; some contacts cited uncertainty about the economic outlook and about fiscal and regulatory policy. Nonetheless, business contacts had become somewhat more optimistic, with more contacts reporting plans to expand capacity and payrolls. Some companies indicated that they planned to relocate some production from abroad to the United States. A few participants noted that national and District surveys of firms' capital spending plans suggested that the recent slowing in business fixed investment was partly temporary. The combination of high energy prices and availability of new drilling technologies was promoting strong growth in investment outlays in the energy sector.
.....Participants generally expected that growth of U.S. exports was likely to be held back in the coming year by slower global economic growth. In particular, fiscal austerity programs in Europe and stresses in the European banking system seemed likely to restrain economic growth there, perhaps with some spillover to growth in Asia. One participant noted that shipping rates had declined of late, suggesting that a slowdown in international trade might be under way.
Participants generally saw the housing sector as still depressed. The level of activity remained quite weak, house prices were continuing to decline in most areas, and the overhang of foreclosed and distressed properties was still substantial. Nonetheless, there were some small signs of improvement. The inventory of unsold homes had declined, though in part because the foreclosure process had slowed, and issuance of permits for new single-family homes had risen from its lows. One participant again noted reports from some homebuilders suggesting that land prices were edging up and that financing was available from nonbank sources. Another participant cited reports from business contacts indicating that credit standards in mortgage lending were becoming somewhat less stringent. Yet another noted that recent changes to the Home Affordable Refinance Program, which were intended to streamline the refinancing of performing high-loan-to-value mortgages, were showing some success.
Participants agreed that recent indicators showed some further gradual improvement in overall labor market conditions: Payroll employment had increased somewhat more rapidly in recent months, new claims for unemployment insurance had trended lower, and the unemployment rate had declined. Some business contacts indicated that they planned to do more hiring this year than last. However, unemployment--including longer-term unemployment--remained elevated, and the numbers of discouraged workers and people working part time because they could not find full-time work were also still quite high. Participants expressed a range of views on the current extent of slack in the labor market. Very high long-duration unemployment might indicate a mismatch between unemployed workers' skills and employers' needs, suggesting that a substantial part of the increase in unemployment since the beginning of the recession reflected factors other than a shortfall in aggregate demand. In contrast, the quite modest increases in labor compensation of late, and the large number of workers reporting that they are working part time because their employers have cut their hours, suggested that underutilization of labor was still substantial. A few participants noted that the recent decline in the unemployment rate reflected declining labor force participation in large part, and judged that the decline in the participation rate was likely to be reversed, at least to some extent, as the recovery continues and labor demand picks up.
Meeting participants observed that financial conditions improved and financial market stresses eased somewhat during the intermeeting period: Equity prices rose, volatility declined, and bank lending conditions appeared to improve. Participants noted that the ECB's three-year refinancing operation had apparently contributed to improved conditions in European sovereign debt markets. Nonetheless, participants expected that global financial markets would remain focused on the evolving situation in Europe and anticipated that continued policy efforts would be necessary in Europe to fully address the area's fiscal and financial problems. U.S. banks reported increases in commercial lending as some European lenders pulled back, and some banking contacts indicated that creditworthy companies' demand for credit had increased. A number of participants noted further improvement in the availability of loans to businesses, with a couple of them indicating that small business contacts had reported increased availability of bank credit. However, a few other participants commented that small businesses in their Districts continued to face difficulty in obtaining bank loans.
Participants observed that longer-run inflation expectations were still well anchored and also noted that inflation had been subdued in recent months, partly reflecting a decline in commodity prices and an easing of supply chain disruptions since mid-2011. In addition, labor compensation had risen only slowly and productivity continued to increase. One participant reported that a survey of business inflation expectations indicated firms were anticipating increases in unit costs on the order of 1 3/4 percent this year, just a bit higher than last year. Looking farther ahead, participants generally judged that the modest expansion in economic activity that they were projecting would be consistent with a gradual reduction in the current wide margins of slack in labor and product markets and with subdued inflation going forward. Some remained concerned that, with the persistence of considerable resource slack, inflation might continue to drift down and run below mandate-consistent levels for some time. However, a couple of participants were concerned that inflation could rise as the recovery continued and argued that providing additional monetary accommodation, or even maintaining the current highly accommodative stance of monetary policy over the medium run, would erode the stability of inflation expectations and risk higher inflation.
There were several procedural votes on extending or slightly modifying existing Fed policy. These can be read by clicking on the hyperlink below.
source: Federal Reserve