China: GDP Grew 9.2% in 2011

January 17th, 2012
in econ_news

Econontersect:  China’s growth slowed last year, if you want to call 9.2% gain slow.  It was down from 10.3% for 2010.  China’s GDP was China-flag147.16 trillion yuan ($7.47 trillion) for the world’s second largest economy, slightly under 50% of the $15.3 trillion estimated for the U.S.  The fourth quarter was the weakest in two years at 8.9% annual rate of growth.  Shanghai Daily said that the fourth quarter was stronger than the consensus of estimates by economists which was 8.5%.  The GDP numbers came down gradually and smoothly from 9.7% in Q1 2011 to the fourth quarter estimate just announced as the People’s Bank of China and the government tightened monetary policy to rein in inflation.

Follow up:

With inflation now down to 4.1% annual rate in December from 6.5% in the middle of the summer, the Financial Times says the gradual slowdown led most analysts to conclude that Beijing has managed to engineer a “soft landing”.  Inflation is now running close to the government's 4.0% target.

However, the Financial Times lists a number of ongoing concerns for 2012 (most are reported at GEI News):

  • Exports to China’s largest markets, the U.S. and Europe are slowing.
  • Imports (mostly raw materials) are also slowing raising concerns about future production.
  • Manufacturing has been contracting for three months.
  • The real estate market has started a downturn.

The Financial Times quotes a number of sources that predict China will see further slowing of GDP growth in 2012 with growth in the 7-8% range mentioned.

Sources: Shanghai Daily, Financial Times and GEI News

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