December 4th, 2011
Econintersect: Global Economic Intersection normally includes a statement from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) on the BLS Jobs Report (analysis here). This statement was not available when the article was posted but is available now. Chief economist for the NFIB William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following statement on the November job numbers:
“The jobs report this month bears the first good news in a while. While the net change in employment per firm wasn’t much different from zero, it had a positive sign in front of it for the first time in nearly half a year. On average, owners reported increasing employment an average of 0.12 workers per firm. Seasonally adjusted, 13 percent of the owners added an average of three workers per firm over the past few months, and 11 percent reduced employment an average of 2.9 workers per firm. The remaining 74 percent of owners made no net change in employment.
“Forty-seven (47) percent of small business owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 35 percent of them reported few or no qualified applicants for positions, both figures up 4 points from October.
“The percent of owners cutting jobs has returned to ‘normal’ levels. Even in a great job market, over 300,000 file initial claims for unemployment, i.e. they are fired or laid off. And the percent of owners adding employees (creating jobs) continued to trend up. Reports of new job creation should pick up a bit in the coming months.
“Sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted) reported hard to fill job openings up 2 points and the highest reading in 38 months. Over the next three months, 11 percent plan to increase employment (up 2 points), and 11 percent plan to reduce their workforce (down 1 point), yielding a seasonally adjusted net 7 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a 4 point improvement and the strongest reading in 38 months.
“Let’s hope this positive report is the start of the trend and not just a blip.”