November 23rd, 2011
Econintersect: In summarizing the effects of the Obama Stimulus (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act - ARRA), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) now believes it created up to 2.4 million jobs. Overall, the positive impact of the ARRA comparing third quarter 2011 to an imaginary 3Q2011 without a stimulus:
- Raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 0.3% and 1.9%,
- Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.2 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points,
- Increased the number of people employed by between 0.4 million and 2.4 million, and
- Increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by 0.5 million to 3.3 million.
Follow up:The effects of the ARRA peaked in 2010. The CBO believes employment lags slightly behind the effects on GDP. CBO stated that employment effects began to wane at the end of 2010 and is continuing throughout 2011.
The conclusion by Econintersect is that the CBO seems to be convinced the effects of ARRA were positive, but is quite uncertain by how much.