4Q2011 Philly Fed Economic Forecast Revised Down (again)

November 15th, 2011
in econ_news

Econintersect: Seems like everytime economic forecasters meet, they revise downward their economic forecast.

The outlook for growth and unemployment in the U.S. economy looks a little weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 45 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict lower real GDP growth and higher unemployment rates in 2012 and 2013 than they did in August.

Follow up:

The forecasters are polled quarterly on their thoughts on economic growth, employment and inflation.  The majority of the forecasters do not see a recession.  Overall they see the risk of a negative quarter:

4Q2011 - 11.8%

1Q2012 - 16.6%

2Q2012 - 17.3%

3Q2012 - 17.1%

4Q2012 - 17.0%

The chance of a negative quarter reduced from their 3Q2011 forecast.

Our panelists expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent this quarter, unchanged from the previous estimate. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters see real GDP growing 1.8 percent in 2011 (1.7 percent previously). The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.4 percent in 2012 (2.6 percent previously) and 2.7 percent in 2013 (2.9 percent previously). The downward revision in 2012 and 2013 is accompanied by an upward revision for growth in 2014.

Over the next ten years, the forecasters expect inflation in the 2.5% range - up from 2.4% for the 3Q2011 poll. 

source: Philly Fed

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