Rail Traffic Less Good But Growing w/e 15 October 2011

October 20th, 2011
in econ_news

Econintersect: Improvement in rail traffic counts have pushed U.S. railroad data further away from contraction - and now is in positive year-over-year growth across all metrics. However, this week traffic is down 1.0% from the previous week.

Weekly rail traffic has shown contraction year-over-year on four occasions since August. The latest data for week 41 of 2011 ending 15 October 2011, rail traffic grew 1.3% over the same week one year ago according to data provided by Railfax.

Follow up:

Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement until late June. This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 2.5%, up from 2.1% last week. Econintersect believes low growth year-over-year is an economic warning that a recession is possible. But if growth slows no further, or starts to pick up, the threat of recession will begin to recede.


Major Commodity Groups Total Grain Chemicals Food Forest Metals Coal Autos Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2010 1.3% (14.0%) 4.0% (0.8%) (0.0%) 13.6% (2.0%) 9.3% 3.0%
Vs. 2009 13.6% 2.7% 13.3% (2.3%) 4.5% 48.9% 3.8% 24.9% 18.6%
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2010 2.5% (15.5%) 5.8% (3.0%) 3.3% 8.3% 1.3% 10.0% 3.2%
Vs. 2009 14.7% (3.7%) 14.7% (2.1%) 10.2% 42.5% 7.5% 17.0% 19.2%
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2010 1.8% (12.2%) 6.5% (2.8%) 3.3% 6.9% (0.3%) 10.2% 2.7%
Vs. 2009 13.3% (1.1%) 15.0% (4.4%) 7.6% 47.8% 4.9% 19.6% 17.2%
Year to Date
Vs. 2010 3.3% (0.2%) 4.9% (2.8%) 3.5% 8.5% (0.5%) 7.6% 5.3%
Vs. 2009 14.0% 12.7% 15.3% 0.1% 7.4% 52.5% (0.3%) 35.2% 20.8%

 

Four week rolling average

 

source: Railfax

 









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2 comments

  1. wayne Ivan says :
    ****-

    Correction
    "Econintersect believes low growth over 2010 is an economic warning"
    should be 2011

    I come to your site everyday = you're one of 3 analyst I trust. Trust because you analyze instead of rationalize.
    Blessings
    Ivan

  2. admin (Member) Email says :
    *****

    thanks Wayne - maybe my wording was confusing so i changed it to year-over-year.

    steven hansen





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