Rail Traffic Positive Growth Continues w/e 08 October 2011

October 17th, 2011
in econ_news

Econintersect: Continued improvement in rail traffic  counts have pushed U.S. railroad data further away from contraction - and now is in positive year-over-year growth across all metrics.

Weekly rail traffic has shown contraction year-over-year on four occasions since August.  The latest data for week 40 of 2011 ending 08 October 2011, rail traffic grew 2.3% over the same week one year ago according to  data provided by Railfax.

Follow up:

Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement until late June. This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 2.1%, up from 1.6% last week. Econintersect believes low growth over 2010 is an economic warning that a recession is possible.  But if growth slows no further, or starts to pick up, the threat of recession will begin to recede.

Total US Rail Traffic

Major Commodity Groups Total Grain Chemicals Food Forest Metals Coal Autos Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2010 2.3% (10.1%) 9.1% (4.7%) 6.7% 0.4% 1.4% 11.1% 2.4%
Vs. 2009 12.9% (4.8%) 16.6% (6.4%) 10.8% 46.6% 6.2% 14.7% 15.8%
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2010 2.1% (16.1%) 5.9% (4.3%) 4.3% 6.1% 1.3% 9.1% 2.7%
Vs. 2009 14.1% (6.6%) 13.9% (1.7%) 11.1% 37.8% 7.5% 11.8% 19.1%
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2010 2.3% (10.1%) 9.1% (4.7%) 6.7% 0.4% 1.4% 11.1% 2.4%
Vs. 2009 12.9% (4.8%) 16.6% (6.4%) 10.8% 46.6% 6.2% 14.7% 15.8%
Year to Date
Vs. 2010 3.3% 0.2% 5.0% (2.9%) 3.6% 8.3% (0.4%) 7.6% 5.4%
Vs. 2009 14.0% 13.0% 15.3% 0.2% 7.5% 52.6% (0.4%) 35.5% 20.8%

 

Four week rolling average

 

source: Railfax

 









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2 comments

  1. larry levin says :
    *****

    what about falling port traffic

  2. admin (Member) Email says :

    Larry, yes falling port volumes are a concern. only one port has posted september numbers - and imports are level with one year ago, while exports are up solid.

    you have to use a bunch of metrics to get a clear picture - but in any event, marginal growth or lack of growth continues to be the primary news in the transport sector.

    steven





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