Healthy Improvement in Rail Transport w/e 01Oct2011

October 6th, 2011
in econ_news

Econintersect:  Rail counts improvements have now pushed US railroad traffic away from contraction - and now is in positive year-over-year growth across most metrics.

Weekly rail traffic has shown contraction year-over-year on four occasions since August.  In week 39 of 2011 ending 01 October 2011, rail traffic grew 4.6% over the same week one year ago according to rail data provided by Railfax.

Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement until the last weeks in June.  This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 1.6% from a negative 0.4% two weeks ago (no report was issued last week). Econintersect believes low growth over 2010 is an economic warning that a recession is possible.

Follow up:

Total US Rail Traffic

Major Commodity Groups Total Grain Chemicals Food Forest Metals Coal Autos Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2010 4.6% (17.2%) 5.3% 0.1% 3.7% 11.0% 4.9% 12.2% 4.4%
Vs. 2009 16.6% (7.9%) 13.2% 2.8% 14.7% 45.2% 10.9% 20.5% 21.6%
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2010 1.6% (18.1%) 4.5% (5.5%) 2.9% 6.5% 1.2% 8.2% 2.3%
Vs. 2009 13.6% (6.3%) 12.9% (0.3%) 9.9% 35.2% 6.0% 10.2% 19.9%
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2010 0.5% (14.0%) 4.0% (2.5%) 3.1% 9.4% (2.5%) 8.2% 1.2%
Vs. 2009 11.6% (6.3%) 10.5% (0.6%) 7.2% 38.3% (0.5%) 17.1% 19.5%
Year to Date
Vs. 2010 3.4% 0.5% 4.9% (2.8%) 3.5% 8.5% (0.5%) 7.5% 5.4%
Vs. 2009 14.0% 13.6% 15.3% 0.4% 7.4% 52.8% (0.6%) 36.2% 21.0%

 

source: Railfax










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