Rail Traffic Expands in w/e 20Aug2011

August 25th, 2011
in econ_news

Econintersect: Rail traffic expanded in week 33 of 2011 ending 20 August 2011 according to rail data provided by Railfax. Rail traffic contracted last week year-over-year.

Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline until the last weeks in June was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement - this week expanded in relation to the same week last year from -0.3% last week to 1.0%. Econintersect believes low growth over 2011 remains an economic warning.

Follow up:

The major weakness comes from coal transport which the 4 week average is now off 2.7% year-over-year currently - but is a major portion of rail car loadings. Coal is a commodity which can be substituted for other sources of energy - and the lower counts are not necessarily indicative of a contracting economy. However, intermodal transport is a good economic indicator - and the 4 week average remained unchanged at 1.7%.

Year-to-date gains have fallen from 4.0% to 3.9%.

Total US Rail Traffic

Major Commodity Groups Total Grain Chemicals Food Forest Metals Coal Autos Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2010 1.0% (21.0%) 5.8% 1.6% 0.7% 10.6% 0.5% 6.8% 1.0%
Vs. 2009 14.0% (11.8%) 10.5% 3.7% 4.8% 38.9% 1.9% 30.8% 23.5%
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2010 0.5% (13.6%) 4.0% (0.9%) 2.3% 9.8% (2.7%) 7.5% 1.7%
Vs. 2009 12.9% (9.2%) 10.0% 2.1% 7.1% 38.4% (0.8%) 26.4% 22.6%
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2010 0.3% (9.7%) 4.4% (1.3%) 2.7% 11.0% (4.6%) 6.9% 1.3%
Vs. 2009 10.9% (5.5%) 10.1% (1.4%) 5.5% 40.3% (4.4%) 23.6% 20.2%
Year to Date
Vs. 2010 3.9% 4.3% 5.1% (2.6%) 3.5% 8.7% (0.6%) 7.1% 6.3%
Vs. 2009 14.3% 17.7% 16.1% 0.4% 7.1% 56.6% (1.5%) 42.8% 21.4%

 

 

source: Railfax










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