July 27th, 2011
Econintersect: Altos Research, the only real time reporting of real estate prices on the internet, says the seasonal autumn home price contraction is close.
Expect the Spring-time rally to fade. An increasing number of active sellers are taking prices reductions (orange line below) and new sellers entering the market each week are starting to price to the down side of this year’s peak (black line below) – which mean lower prices later this year that won’t show up in the Case-Shiller numbers for another 3-4 months.
Econintersect has marked up the Altos graphic showing the year-over-year change in pricing for new listings. Yesterday, Econintersect analyzed all home price indices (analysis here). Tommorrow, Econintersect will report the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales which will indicate the size of July 2011 existing home sales.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 5% decline in mortgage applications week-over-week (seasonally adjusted). The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 69.6% of total applications from 70.1% the previous week. Readers are cautioned that mortgages account for only 70% of home sales currently. Hat tip to Calculated Risk for the graphic: