Rail Traffic Growth Remains in Downward Trend w/e 02July2011

July 8th, 2011
in econ_news

Econintersect:  Rail traffic YoY remains below trend year-over-year in week 26 of 2011 ending 02 July 2011 according to Railfax.

Econintersect uses the transport sector to gauge economic activity - and trucking numbers also are weak being up only 2.7% year-over-year in May (news here).

Follow up:


Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been  weakening.  The four week trendline which was holding steady between 3% to 4% YoY improvement fell to 2.9% in the previous reporting period - and now has fallen to 2.3%.  Econintersect believes this is a warning signal of economic weakness as material movement in the USA is in danger of falling below 2010 levels.  This would be an indication a recession was underway.

Last week rail traffic was up 1.3% year-over-year, while this week it remains up 1.3% YoY.   The four week moving average fell from 2.9% YoY to 2.3%.  Year-to-date gains have fallen from 5.0% to 4.9%.


Total US Rail Traffic

Major Commodity Groups Total Grain Chemicals Food Forest Metals Coal Autos Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2010 1.3% 5.7% 3.2% 0.3% 3.3% 8.1% (5.0%) 13.1% 2.5%
Vs. 2009 27.5% 14.5% 25.6% (4.2%) 16.6% 95.7% 0.6% 155.7% 40.0%
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2010 2.3% 9.5% 2.9% (0.2%) 4.9% 7.3% (2.8%) 3.0% 4.1%
Vs. 2009 19.7% 23.0% 16.7% (1.8%) 7.6% 75.9% (0.7%) 64.7% 28.7%
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2010 3.2% 13.0% 3.2% (0.7%) 0.6% 5.1% (2.7%) 3.1% 6.8%
Vs. 2009 19.1% 29.3% 16.2% (0.6%) 7.6% 80.1% 2.2% 51.7% 25.6%
Year to Date
Vs. 2010 4.9% 8.0% 5.3% (3.0%) 3.7% 8.1% 0.6% 7.1% 7.8%
Vs. 2009 15.3% 24.4% 17.9% 0.8% 7.5% 62.1% (0.7%) 48.2% 21.7%

 

Total Rail Traffic

 

source: Railfax











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