July 3rd, 2011
Econintersect: The USA is enjoying a short week caused by Monday being the 4th of July holiday. The week ahead is dominated by the June 2011 employment data.
Readers are reminded that the USA dominates economic reporting as:
- the USA remains the dominate player in global consumption / trade;
- data from both private and public reporting agencies are released significantly closer to the end of reporting periods than any other country or blocks;
- data can be cross-checked and validated allowing real and meaningful analysis; and,
- global economic power has been continuing to shift from west to east, but the USA remains the global economic canary.
For this week, look to Econintersect for the following USA economic analysis:
Monday July 4: None - Holiday
Tuesday July 5: May Manufacturing New Orders & backlog
Wednesday July 6: Real Estate Weekly Update
Thurday July 7: ADP Employment, Weekly Railroad Rail Counts
Friday July 8: BLS Employment, May Wholesale Sales
Econintersect forecast at the end of May 2011 that the BLS non-farm private employment gains for June would be 130,000. The consensus view is a shade under 100,000. With the continued elevated initial unemployment claims over 400,000, the real non-farm private employment growth number will be under the workforce growth number of 150,000. The current economic soft patch should also reduce expectations.