June 30th, 2011
Econintersect: Although surveys rarely get it right, the Chicago Purchasing Managers say conditions have improved in June 2011. This survey is important when most other surveys such as the Federal Reserves regional surveys (analysis here) were suggesting the economy was falling off a cliff.
The major driver in this survey is new orders which the unadjusted numbers show 49% of respondents believe are increasing, 28% say new orders are the same, while only 23% say new orders are declining.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER rebounded in June and posted a twenty-first month of growth.
PRODUCTION and NEW ORDERS accelerated to mark nearly two years of expansion while their
three-month averages declined;
ORDER BACKLOGS diverged from improvements in PRODUCTION and NEW ORDERS;
- Breadth of inflation reported in PRICES PAID eased for a third month.
- Lead times reported for CAPITAL EQUIPMENT lengthened to a level not seen since June 2006.
Econintersect believes order backlog is a primary test of the health of this sector - and the quantified opinion of the respondents say it is growing. However, real data a month old is saying there is a contraction in backlog.