Economic Forecasters Reforecast

May 13th, 2011
in econ_news

Econintersect: The Philly Fed Second Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters downwardly revised their forecast for 2Q2011 GDP for 3.5% to 3.2%.

READER ALERT:  Forecaster's always have opinions - their last opinion was that 1Q2011 GDP would be 3.6% (the BEA says 1Q2011 GDP was 1.8%).

Growth in the U.S. economy looks a little slower now than it did three months ago, according to 44 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Follow up:

Our panelists expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 3.2 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 3.5 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters also predict slower real GDP growth over the next four years. The forecasters see real GDP growing 2.7 percent in 2011, down from their prediction of 3.2 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 3.0 percent in 2012, 2.8 percent in 2013, and 3.3 percent in 2014, each somewhat lower than their respective predictions in the last survey.

On the other hand, the forecasters has raised their inflation expectations

The forecasters projected 1Q2011 inflation at 2.5%, and it came in at 2.7%.

source: Federal Reserve of Philadelphia


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