April 2nd, 2011
Econintersect: According to former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich, the USA economy is headed in the direction of a double dip. The basis of this pessimism is the falling consumer confidence levels the surveys have been indicating recently.
Econintersect performed a high level review of all indexes in the Conference Board Confirms Consumer Relapse . Consumer spending makes up between 2/3rds and 70% of the economy. Follow up:
Econintersect also published its April forecast showing the economy's rate of growth would be flat - but still growing at the same rate it grew in March.
Also, the long range (six month) forecasts of the Conference Board was analyzed in Leading Economic Index Still Climbing in February. In addition, Econintersect's favored forward indicator from ECRI is reviewed in its weekly economic summary - this week entitled Japan’s Fate Subject to the Winds.
Consumer confidence levels have never recovered during the recovery from the Great Recession - and there has been little correlation between consumer spending and consumer confidence since late 2007.