January 31st, 2011
Econintersect: Fund managers Constock Capital have written that there are a number of reasons why this is not a normal economic recovery. They say the facts speak for themselves and feel the Fed continuing with QE2 is justified. They cite factors in employment, household spending, tight credit and lower home values which make this recovery remarkably weak. Comstock give eight comparisons the the two immediately prceding recessions to make their point. Follow up:
Follow up:Comstock's eight reasons:
1) GDP was up an average of 6.4% from the prior peak at this point in the last two cycles, and only 0.2% now.
2) New home sales were up 23% then; down 47% now.
3) Retail sales were up 14% then, 1% now.
4) Industrial production was up 2.5% then, down 5.6% now.
5) Non-farm payroll employment was down 0.1% then, down 5.2% now
6) Personal income was up 11% then, 4% now.
7) New orders for durable goods were up 6.2% then, down 2.2% now.
8) Initial weekly unemployment claims were down 8% then, up 22% now.
Comstock Partners are the managers of the Comstock Capital Value Fund.