Abstraction, Language and Modelling in Economics

November 18th, 2016
in macroeconomics

by Philip Pilkington

Fixing the Economists Article of the Week

Alciphron is the title of the book by the philosopher George Berkeley that was most popular in his own time and is probably his least popular in ours. The reason for this is because the book deals with atheism and religion and many would suppose that this has little bearing on questions unrelated.

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Earnings ex-Losers Look Great

November 13th, 2016
in uncategorized

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.”– J. Paul Getty

“Any jerk can have short-term earnings.”– Jack Welch

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Does the Economy Remain Too Weak For The Fed To Raise The Federal Funds Rate?

Written by

I have written before on the raising of the federal funds rate [here] in June.  The main thrust of that post:

.... the Fed was negligent in not raising the federal funds rate earlier - when the economy was running on all cylinders in 2014. I have consistently forecast that beginning in 2015, the economy was slowing and that raising the federal funds rate coincident with a slowing economy is not logical on many levels.

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Disturbing Distributions in Economic Statistics

November 11th, 2016
in macroeconomics

by Philip Pilkington

Article of the Week from Fixing the Economists

Lars Syll has recently published an excellent post on the dilemma of probability theory when applied to the social sciences in general and economics in particular. Syll argues that in order to apply probability theory — which is deeply embedded not simply in mainstream economic models but also in econometric techniques — we must first be sure that the underlying system being studied conforms to certain presuppositions of probability theory.

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Making Difficult Choices: How One Congressional District Could Decide the Next President

November 7th, 2016
in macroeconomics

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

I have a letter halfway done on economic/investment themes, but I’m putting it aside. For over 16 years I have written each week about what has interested me and what I have thought important. And frankly, what is really on my mind is the same thing that is likely on your mind, and that is Tuesday’s election results. So I am going to write a shorter letter on my thoughts on the election, trying to put an economic spin on the political process (since economics is the beat of this letter, not politics) and give you a heads up on what may possibly be the big story on Tuesday night.


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