Global Value Chains and the US Missing Exports

October 16th, 2017
in trade data, macroeconomics


-- this post authored by Yuqing Xing

The last few decades have seen the US running its largest ever trade deficit. This column uses the case of Apple to demonstrate that the failure of trade statistics to capture flows of intellectual property embedded in exports explains a significant share of this deficit.

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Slackers: How the Multiplier Works in the Real World

October 13th, 2017
in aa syndication

by Philip Pilkington

In a previous post I wrote about the key reason that the natural rate of interest does not exist. There I discussed the Kahn Multiplier. We saw that when investment increased consumption increased along with it due to the fresh income received from the investment spending.

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Uncle Sam’s Unfunded Promises

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

Here’s a surprisingly profound question: What is a promise? Dictionaries offer various definitions. I like this one:

“An express assurance on which expectation is to be based.”

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The Natural Rate of Interest Does Not Exist

October 6th, 2017
in macroeconomics, currency / money

by Philip Pilkington

I just want to make a quick note on the multiplier and the theory of liquidity preference that is not generally recognised. When the full implications of this argument are recognised and integrated with marginalist theories of savings and investment (including the Austrian theory) these theories basically fall apart unless some very restrictive assumptions are put in place.

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Global Retirement Reality

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

Today we’ll continue to size up the bull market in governmental promises. As we do so, keep an old trader’s slogan in mind: “That which cannot go on forever, won’t.” Or we could say it differently: An unsustainable trend must eventually stop.

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