Post-Real Economics

February 1st, 2017
in macroeconomics

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“Too large a proportion of recent ‘mathematical’ economics are mere concoctions, as imprecise as the initial assumptions they rest on, which allow the author to lose sight of the complexities and interdependencies of the real world in a maze of pretentious and unhelpful symbols.” John Maynard Keynes

“Simplicity does not precede complexity, but follows it.” – Alan Perlis

“Stop trying to change reality by attempting to eliminate complexity.”– David Whyte

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Inventories and Low Deflator Boost Low GDP Estimate

January 29th, 2017
in consumer metrics institute, gdp

BEA Estimates 4th Quarter 2016 GDP at 1.87%

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute

In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economic growth rate was +1.87%, down by nearly half (-1.66%) from the prior quarter.

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Higher Employment Levels Not Energizing The Economy

Written by

I have written on many occasions about the economic reset which occurred somewhere around the turn of the century. Inflation adjusted family incomes and prime age employment have little changed since 2000.

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Keynes and Loanable Funds

by Philip Pilkington

I was recently discussing econometrics and Keynes’ critique of it with Severin Reissl, a particularly clever student currently attending the University of Glasgow who is critical of mainstream economics. (You can find some examples of his writing here in which I am quoted to criticise some of the assumptions in a mainstream macroeconomic textbook).  Click on image below for larger view.

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The Surprising Pevalence of Surprises in Export Specialisation

January 22nd, 2017
in trade data, macroeconomics

by Voxeu.org

-- this post authored by Diego Daruich, William Easterly and Ariell Reshef

National trade policies have been at the heart of recent policy debates, with many calls for industrial policies to help pick winners. This column shows that while a few export goods account for the bulk of export value within each country, hyper-specialisations are very unstable, making it unlikely that industrial policy will work even in the medium run. The best policy to promote exports would be just to let entrepreneurs exploit new opportunities as they arise.

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