February 2014 Pending Home Sales Data Again Bad

Written by

The pending home sales index for February 2014 was released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) today, and our analysis suggests that March 2014 existing home sales again may not be good.

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Third Estimate 4Q2013 GDP Revised to 2.6%

March 27th, 2014
in aa syndication, gdp

Written by Doug Short and

The third estimate of fourth quarter 2013 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now a positive 2.6%.

  • The market expected GDP at +2.2% to 3.0% (consensus 2.7%).
  • This data point was 3.2% in the advance GDP estimate, and 2.4% in the second estimate.

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Case-Shiller Home Prices January 2014: Taking a Breather

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The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) for January 2014 (released today) declined again slightly but showed the 20th consecutive monthly year-over-year gain in housing prices since the end of the housing stimulus in 2010.

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Durable Goods Mixed in February 2014

Written by

The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved in February. Our analysis says the opposite. There is no argument, however, that if one excludes aircraft - this is not a good report.

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Eccles, Conant, Foster, Hobson and Mandeville for the 21st Century

March 26th, 2014
in usa economic indicators

Economic consequences of income inequality

by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets

A lot of things have happened in China since my last entry – in the FX markets, in the banking system, in the announcements of default, and in the continuing lowering of growth expectations – but for all the turmoil, as I see it nothing has happened that was unexpected and that has not been discussed many times on this blog. For that reason I decided to post a rather long essay (sorry) on income inequality and on how I think we can best think about the impact of income inequality on the global economy.

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