Economy Doing So Well, Fed Carries Out Staged Withdrawal

April 10th, 2014
in employment, currency / money

by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner

Yes, the economy is doing so well, in the coming final day of the Fed’s staged withdrawal from QE, the Fed’s choppers will leave from the rooftops of Washington and Wall Street as friendly forces scramble to get aboard the last one. That’s how well things are going.

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Wholesale Sales and Inventories Strange in February 2014

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The headlines say February 2014 wholesale sales improved, and inventories jumped. This data series is very noisy, and has been on a roller coaster of one good month / one bad month. This whole data series was revised this month so talking about relative change to last month is pointless. Consider that the three month rolling averages for unadjusted sales is accelerating, but unadjusted inventory levels jumped unusually and are above the range for non-recessionary periods.

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Fiat Money and Business Cycles in Emerging Markets

by Roger McKinney,

After the stock market collapse of 2008 and a decline of 3.4 percent for U.S. GDP in 2009, investors rushed to stash funds in emerging markets (EM) where economies were growing at a 3.1 percent annual rate. But the US stock market fell in January of this year largely due to financial trouble in emerging markets. 

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The Takeaways from the Latest Fama-French Research

by Michael Edesess,

Eugene Fama and Kenneth French’s research has gained considerable attention in the world of investment finance since their articles on size and value effects in 1992 and 1993. Their latest work, A Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model, covers five factors: size (i.e., capitalization), value (i.e., book-to-market ratio), broad market factor, profitability (profits-to-assets ratio) and investment (how much of a company’s earnings it invests in new or expanded ventures).

My question is whether this work provides any information that can be of practical value to advisors or investors. After careful evaluation of their paper, I conclude that the answer is no. The work is too opaque to allow thorough independent analysis or confirmation, and it provides no explanation or motivation to believe that its findings based on historical data have any implications for future investments.

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February 2014 JOLTS Exceeds Expections But Data Is Mixed

April 8th, 2014
in aa syndication, employment

Written by

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) can be used as a predictor of future jobs growth, and the predictive elements show that the jobs situation growth rate is mixed. This was an annual revision month which negates past analysis.

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