BEA Boosts GDP Growth Estimate

March 27, 2014 - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2013 GDP Growth Up Slightly To A 2.64% Annual Rate

by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute

In their third estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2013, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a 2.64% annualized rate, up .27% from the 2.37% growth rate previously reported - but still down sharply (-1.53%) from the 4.19% reported for the 3rd quarter. The improvement in the headline growth came almost entirely from the BEA's reassessment of consumer spending on services (adding .57% to the headline number, mostly from increased spending on health care). 

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Final March 2014 Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Expectations

March 28th, 2014
in aa syndication, consumer sentiment

by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final number for March came in at 80.0, a statically insignificant change from the 79.9 of the preliminary report, but a decline from the 81.6 February final. Today's reading split the difference between the Investing.com forecast of 80.5 and the Briefing.com forecast of 79.5. The index is off its 85.1 interim high set in July of last year.

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February 2014 Real Personal Income and Expenditures Have Good Growth

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Both Real Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and Real Disposable Personal Income (DPI) grew equal percentages month-over-month. This is the second month that the growth rates were strong, but expenditures are still outpacing income.

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Probability Simulations and Flight MH370

March 28th, 2014
in history

by Salil Mehta, Statistical Ideas

Probability simulations help show distributions for both parametric and non-parametric analysis. We will show this below, starting with multi-dimensional random walk. Then we will apply this technique and integrate Bayesian likelihood analysis, connected to a spherical map.

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February 2014 Pending Home Sales Data Again Bad

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The pending home sales index for February 2014 was released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) today, and our analysis suggests that March 2014 existing home sales again may not be good.

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